Technical Update -  Gasoline leading Oil higher? Mixed picture on Gas Technical Update -  Gasoline leading Oil higher? Mixed picture on Gas Technical Update -  Gasoline leading Oil higher? Mixed picture on Gas

Technical Update - Gasoline leading Oil higher? Mixed picture on Gas

Commodities 4 minutes to read
KCL
Kim Cramer Larsson

Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group

Summary:  Brent Crude and WTI oil futures on the verge of breaking out Bullish of short term falling trend line. Gasoline might be leading Oil higher. Dutch TFF Gas building higher base and could be ready for uptrend whereas Henry Hub Gas is recording new highs and could continue.


At the time of writing Brent Crude Oil is trading above short term falling trend line. If Brent closes the day above $110.30 correction has ended and uptrend is resumed. Big test will then be $114.85.
To demolish this likely Bullish picture a daily close below 103.15 is needed. If that scenario plays out key support at around 96.75 is likely to be tested.

Source: Saxo Group

WTI Crude oil is (of course) showing similar pattern; close to break bullish out of falling trend line. A daily close above $108 would confirm the break out and indicate uptrend to resume. Further confirmation if breaking above 109.81. Strong resistance at 116.40

Source: Saxo Group

Gasoline could be the Canary in the coal mine for Oil. Gasoline confirmed uptrend last week when closing above $344.65. With today’s break away gap higher the 0.618 retracement has been broken after four days of attempt.
RSI is above 60 threshold i.e. showing positive sentiment and with no divergence Gasoline is likely to test March high at around 389. However, the uptrend seems strong new highs at around
For Gasoline to reverse the uptrend a daily close below 313 is needed. First indication of that scenario to play out would be a break below 334.

Source: Saxo Group

Is Dutch TTF Gas building a short term uptrend? With a higher low 2nd May it seems that way. IF RSI has a daily close above 60 threshold the indication for a Bull move is high. If Dutch Gas trades above the 55 daily SMA  Bollinger bands are likely to expand indicating a new uptrend could be unfolding.
A daily close below €96 will reverse and demolish possible bullish picture 

Source: Saxo Group
Henry Hub Gas continue its uptrend. RSI divergence seems to be building up however, and this could be last exhaustive move higher possibly to around 8.70 which is both the 1.7764 projection of the Autumn correction and the 1.382 projection of the recent correction in April.

Source: Saxo Group

Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3

Sandcastle economics

01 / 05

  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.

    Read article
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain inflation and evolving monetary policies.

    Read article
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynamics echo 2021's rally.

    Read article
  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperform in Q3 2024.

    Read article
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities in Q3 2024.

    Read article

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

Saxo
40 Bank Street, 26th floor
E14 5DA
London
United Kingdom

Contact Saxo

Select region

United Kingdom
United Kingdom

Trade Responsibly
All trading carries risk. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more
Additional Key Information Documents are available in our trading platform.

Saxo is a registered Trading Name of Saxo Capital Markets UK Ltd (‘Saxo’). Saxo is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, Firm Reference Number 551422. Registered address: 26th Floor, 40 Bank Street, Canary Wharf, London E14 5DA. Company number 7413871. Registered in England & Wales.

This website, including the information and materials contained in it, are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in the United States, Belgium or any other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation.

It is important that you understand that with investments, your capital is at risk. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. It is your responsibility to ensure that you make an informed decision about whether or not to invest with us. If you are still unsure if investing is right for you, please seek independent advice. Saxo assumes no liability for any loss sustained from trading in accordance with a recommendation.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Android is a trademark of Google Inc.

©   since 1992