Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: Brent Crude and WTI oil futures on the verge of breaking out Bullish of short term falling trend line. Gasoline might be leading Oil higher. Dutch TFF Gas building higher base and could be ready for uptrend whereas Henry Hub Gas is recording new highs and could continue.
At the time of writing Brent Crude Oil is trading above short term falling trend line. If Brent closes the day above $110.30 correction has ended and uptrend is resumed. Big test will then be $114.85.
To demolish this likely Bullish picture a daily close below 103.15 is needed. If that scenario plays out key support at around 96.75 is likely to be tested.
WTI Crude oil is (of course) showing similar pattern; close to break bullish out of falling trend line. A daily close above $108 would confirm the break out and indicate uptrend to resume. Further confirmation if breaking above 109.81. Strong resistance at 116.40
Gasoline could be the Canary in the coal mine for Oil. Gasoline confirmed uptrend last week when closing above $344.65. With today’s break away gap higher the 0.618 retracement has been broken after four days of attempt.
RSI is above 60 threshold i.e. showing positive sentiment and with no divergence Gasoline is likely to test March high at around 389. However, the uptrend seems strong new highs at around
For Gasoline to reverse the uptrend a daily close below 313 is needed. First indication of that scenario to play out would be a break below 334.
Is Dutch TTF Gas building a short term uptrend? With a higher low 2nd May it seems that way. IF RSI has a daily close above 60 threshold the indication for a Bull move is high. If Dutch Gas trades above the 55 daily SMA Bollinger bands are likely to expand indicating a new uptrend could be unfolding.
A daily close below €96 will reverse and demolish possible bullish picture
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Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Uncover the shifting focus in 2024's FX markets towards growth resilience and relativity, away from bond yields and inflation stories.
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The gloominess of geopolitical conflicts and the repetitive nature of political agendas. What else does 2024 hold in store for us?
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Understand China's political landscape in Q4 2023 and the impact on counter-cyclical initiatives, with a focus on the pivotal Q1 2024.