Outrageous Predictions
Executive Summary: Outrageous Predictions 2026
Saxo Group
Read Saxo's Outrageous Predictions for 2026, our latest batch of low probability, but high impact ev...
Access both platforms from your single Saxo account.
Grains: Eyeing US planting intentions for 2020
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
Summary: The grain market will turn to grain fundamentals from the macro economic developments later today when the US Department of Agriculture releases its Prospective planting 2020 report. Market surveys are looking for a bigger acreage allocation to corn and soybeans while wheat may settle for the lowest acreage on record.
What is our trading focus?
- CBOT Wheat - WHEATMAY20
- CBOT Corn – CORNMAY20
- CBOT Soybeans – SOYBEANSMAY20
- DBA:arcx – Invesco DB Agriculture Fund
- AIGA:xlon – Wisdomtree Agriculture
The turmoil in global markets this past month have also impacted the agriculture sector. Grain and oil-seed futures together with cotton have seen elevated volatility with the impact of the Covid-19 being felt differently, depending on whether supply or demand has been the focus. Hoarding of wheat from stay at home consumers lifted wheat prices while pent up buying demand from China supported soy-meal buying towards livestock feed.
At the bottom of the table we see the negative spill over effect of the collapse in oil prices. Ethanol production accounts for around 39% of US corn demand and with gasoline prices and demand falling that trade has been negatively impacted. Cotton has also been hit as the cost of synthetic fibers, made from oil related chemicals, has fallen while clothes sales around the world has taken a major hit.
Later today however the attention will, at least temporary, turn from macro-economic developments to crop fundamentals. At 16:00 GMT the US Department of Agriculture will release its prospective planting report for 2020. The report will show how US farmers intend to allocate their acreage between the different crops.
Surveys carried out by Reuters and Bloomberg both point to an increase in the corn acreage to a seven-year high while the soybean acreage is expected to hit the 3rd largest ever. The acreage allocated to wheat meanwhile is expected to drop to a record low below 45 million acre. Thereby continuing a forty year trend of lower acreage being allocated to wheat. This as competition from other regions, especially Europe, the Black Sea and Australia have shifted the focus towards soybeans due to Chinese demand and corn due to the mentioned ethanol production.
Recent developments may alter the these initial projections and leave the market response a bit more calm than seen in the past. From a speculative perspective wheat is the most vulnerable to a bearish outcome given the current price level and the recent buying. Corn and soybeans meanwhile both lingers near the bottom of their trading ranges and could find support should the acreage turn out lower than expected.
Latest Market Insights
Outrageous Predictions 2026
-
-
Outrageous Predictions
A Fortune 500 company names an AI model as CEO
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Can AI be trusted to take over in the boardroom? With the right algorithms and balanced human oversi... -
Outrageous Predictions
Dollar dominance challenged by Beijing’s golden yuan
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Beijing does an end-run around the US dollar, setting up a framework for settling trade in a neutral... -
Outrageous Predictions
Obesity drugs for everyone – even for pets
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
The availability of GLP-1 drugs in pill form makes them ubiquitous, shrinking waistlines, even for p... -
Outrageous Predictions
Dumb AI triggers trillion-dollar clean-up
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
Agentic AI systems are deployed across all sectors, and after a solid start, mistakes trigger a tril... -
Outrageous Predictions
Quantum leap Q-Day arrives early, crashing crypto and destabilizing world finance
Neil Wilson
Investor Content Strategist
A quantum computer cracks today’s digital security, bringing enough chaos with it that Bitcoin crash... -
Outrageous Predictions
Taylor Swift-Kelce wedding spikes global growth
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
Next year’s most anticipated wedding inspires Gen Z to drop the doomscrolling and dial up the real w... -
Outrageous Predictions
SpaceX announces an IPO, supercharging extraterrestrial markets
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
Financial markets go into orbit, to the moon and beyond as SpaceX expands rocket launches by orders-... -
Outrageous Predictions
Britain’s Great EU Backdoor Return
Neil Wilson
Investor Content Strategist
Faced with rolling fiscal, economic, trade and political crises the UK government sneaks back into t... -
Outrageous Predictions
Despite concerns, U.S. 2026 mid-term elections proceed smoothly
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
In spite of outstanding threats to the American democratic process, the US midterms come and go cord...