Grains: Eyeing US planting intentions for 2020

Later today however the attention will, at least temporary, turn from macro-economic developments to crop fundamentals. At 16:00 GMT the US Department of Agriculture will release its prospective planting report for 2020. The report will show how US farmers intend to allocate their acreage between the different crops.

Surveys carried out by Reuters and Bloomberg both point to an increase in the corn acreage to a seven-year high while the soybean acreage is expected to hit the 3^rd largest ever. The acreage allocated to wheat meanwhile is expected to drop to a record low below 45 million acre. Thereby continuing a forty year trend of lower acreage being allocated to wheat. This as competition from other regions, especially Europe, the Black Sea and Australia have shifted the focus towards soybeans due to Chinese demand and corn due to the mentioned ethanol production.

Recent developments may alter the these initial projections and leave the market response a bit more calm than seen in the past. From a speculative perspective wheat is the most vulnerable to a bearish outcome given the current price level and the recent buying. Corn and soybeans meanwhile both lingers near the bottom of their trading ranges and could find support should the acreage turn out lower than expected.