Crude oil looks to OPEC+ and EIA for inspiration

Both crude oil contracts once again failed to receive a bid from the general risk appetite being signaled yesterday through a weaker dollar and a new high in the S&P 500. While not expected to be a market moving event, the market nevertheless awaits the outcome of today’s OPEC+ committee meeting. The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) will analyse and discuss the latest oil market developments. They a likely to refrain from making any major announcement at a time where pandemic related demand concerns continue to off-set improved economic data among key consumers.

They will also be keeping a close eye on U.S. shale oil producers and take comfort from the fact that a sharp fall-off in well completions could see production fall even further from its current 10.7 million barrels/day before eventually stabilizing.

Instead the group will continue to maintaining discipline while applying pressure on those countries that have yet to reach their agreed production targets. Not least considering news that Libya potentially could resume some crude oil exports after its eastern commander Khalifa Hafar said ports closed since January can reopen. Libya’s oil production has slumped from 1.2 million barrels/day last year to the current 90,000 barrels/day.

Increased pressure on Iraq and Nigeria to make further cuts with the prospect of additional barrels coming from Libya over the coming months

Also today at 14:30 GMT, the 'Weekly Petroleum Status Report' from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. With crude oil stocks expected to continue their seasonal reduction, the focus may instead turn to gasoline. It is the worst performing contract today after the American Petroleum Institute said gasoline stocks rose by an uncomfortable large and counter seasonal 5 million barrels last week.

As per usual I will post results and charts on my Twitter handle @Ole_S_Hansen