Summary: Today we note that yesterday's divergences in the US equity market internals were particularly large as Mag7 and banks suffered yesterday amidst otherwise strong market breadth, while silver stumbled on a double whammy of news but is already posting a comeback attempt. Elsewhere, we scratch our head at the situation over Greenland, remind of the critical stakes for energy and the Middle East at large as Iran's regime teeters and much more. Today's pod features Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Listen to the full episode now or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app.
The AI revolution is here - will the economy survive the transition? Some important perspectives here from both AI technologists on where we are and where we are going and the skeptical voice of Michael Burry on the crazy pricing of financial assets linked to AI.
Counter to my own point about Trump going against the Fed on the podcast today, there are other explanations for why the Trump administration needs to end Fed independence as a key step in state-driven capitalism or Michael Every’s “grand macro strategy” or Russell Napier’ “national capitalism”. Break out the popcorn - it’s going to be an epic struggle.
The Narco cartel and Autonomous Underwater Vehicle explanation for why the US went after Venezuela and may have Cuba in its crosshairs next.
Unable to follow through with the link to the Hidden Forces podcast on Venezuela, as the full episode is only available for subscribers, but the “100-year pivot” episodes with Grant Williams is usually released within a few weeks of recording for everyone.
A lot more subjects in this podcast that I flagged on today’s show - but there are some tectonic shifts in big money’s approach to portfolio construction that might be worth all of us considering.
Another scintillating piece from prose artist Cory Doctorow on the “corporate vampires” and abuses that have been brought about by the DCMA, like the inability to service your own hardware or use competing parts, etc., together with the profound implications. There is really a need for a reset of
The banks have been rocked this week by the Trump administration’s threat to cap credit card interest rate charges and even “swipe fees” that merchants pay. This is taking a leaf from the progressive left’s playbook. Banks have generally risen in anticipation of deregulation, but this is a whole new angle for the market to absorb. As well, we wonder what shareholder returns for the long run (from these levels, ate least) will look like as the sun is going down on Fed independence and banks may be directed more forcefully to provide strategic industries with credit for building things that are in the national interest - and full interest paid on reserves might be a thing of the past. Sure, a steeper yield curve could be here to stay, offsetting some of the risks, but banks have had a very nice run of it since late 2023.
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