The Saxo Weekly Market Compass

3 November 2025 (recap week of 27–31 October 2025)

Where markets have been — and where they’re heading.

A weekly wrap with October’s month-end perspective

Headlines & introduction

Markets closed out October on a cautiously upbeat note, with policy shifts and selective earnings driving sentiment. The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points and confirmed an end to quantitative tightening, while the U.S. and China struck a one-year truce on tariffs and rare earths. Tech results dominated market moves, exposing widening divergence across names. European equities held steady, Japan surged, and China struggled on weak PMIs. Gold hovered near USD 4,000, oil steadied, and Bitcoin slipped but stayed above USD 100k.

October at a glance: the S&P 500 added 2.3%, Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed over 16%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 rose 2.4%. The U.S. 10-year yield ended near 4.08%, the dollar index gained almost 2%, and Bitcoin fell nearly 4%. Brent crude posted a third monthly loss.

With October behind us, attention shifts to inflation signals, guidance quality, and how long the policy tailwind can last.

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Equities — Earnings dispersion, local resilience

U.S. equities lost momentum into the weekend as earnings from major tech names sent mixed signals. The S&P 500 still managed a 2.3% gain for the month. Amazon (+9.6%) and Alphabet (+2.5%) impressed with strong cloud and advertising growth, while Meta (−11.3%) slumped on a surprise tax charge and elevated AI spending. Microsoft (−2.9%) also fell after its OpenAI investment weighed on margins. Outside the tech giants, UPS (+8.0%) rose on upbeat guidance, while Fiserv (−44%) collapsed after a severe downgrade and leadership reshuffle. Investors clearly demanded more than just revenue growth—they wanted margin visibility and efficient capital use.

Elsewhere, regional equity markets reflected diverging local narratives. The STOXX 600 dipped 0.5%, but Denmark’s C25 gained nearly 2% in October, led by strong financials and healthcare. In Switzerland, defensive sectors helped the SMI stay relatively stable despite weaker global risk appetite. The AEX in the Netherlands cooled after a strong early-month rally, while Belgium’s BEL 20 ended the month largely unchanged, supported by banks and energy names. The FTSE 100 was broadly flat as sterling volatility clouded earnings outlooks. In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed out its best month in over three decades, while China underperformed as PMI softness continued to weigh on sentiment.
Market pulse: solid delivery earned rewards, but vague guidance got punished.

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Volatility — Measured, not muted

Volatility remained subdued last week, with the VIX holding between 16 and 17. While realised volatility was low, options markets showed investors were still hedging ahead of macro data. The SPX’s implied move hovered near ±1.4% for the week. Early-week skew leaned toward calls, before flattening into month-end.
Market pulse: investors are bracing for data, but not expecting shocks.

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Digital assets — Flows flat, eyes on macro

Bitcoin ranged between USD 107k and 115k, ending October down nearly 4%. Ether tracked closely, holding between USD 3.8k–4.2k. While spot prices slipped, flows into IBIT and ETHA ETFs turned positive late in the month. IBIT’s assets closed October near USD 88B, and ETHA at around USD 15.5B. Altcoins like Solana and XRP followed broader risk sentiment. For now, digital assets remain highly sensitive to shifts in real yields and the dollar.
Market pulse: crypto continues to mirror macro, not momentum.

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Fixed income — Dovish structure, cautious tone

The Fed cut its policy rate to 3.75–4.00% and said QT will end by 1 December, a clear dovish signal. Still, Powell’s remarks were cautious, pushing back on expectations for further cuts. Treasury yields eased slightly, with the 2-year around 3.57% and the 10-year near 4.08%. The BoC also cut, while the BoJ stayed on hold. High-yield credit spreads widened modestly into month-end.
Market pulse: markets heard the pivot, but aren’t fully chasing it.

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Commodities — Oil steadies, gold resilient

Oil prices found footing as OPEC+ paused new supply hikes for Q1, following a modest boost in December. Brent ended near USD 65, and WTI at USD 61. Gold hovered just under USD 4,000, backed by central bank buying and geopolitical hedging. Grains and industrial metals held gains from earlier in the month.
Market pulse: supply discipline and softer rates supported the complex.

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Currencies — Dollar bid, yen rangebound, euro soft

The U.S. dollar extended its strength following the Fed decision, pushing EURUSD below 1.1550 before stabilising. USDJPY stayed above 154, capped by the BoJ’s passive stance. Sterling recovered after a weak start, and the Aussie dollar rallied ahead of the RBA. For euro-based investors, a weaker euro helps exporters but complicates FX hedging.
Market pulse: currencies followed central banks—rate path expectations ruled.

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Key takeaways

• Fed delivered a 25 bp cut and will end QT on 1 December; no further guidance given.
• OPEC+ paused additional output hikes beyond December.
• Tech earnings diverged; market rewarded clarity.
• Europe mixed; Denmark’s C25 outperformed, AEX and BEL 20 steady.
• VIX hovered near 17; options markets stayed vigilant.
• Bitcoin around USD 110k; ETF flows stabilised to end the month.

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Looking ahead (3–7 November 2025) — AI, pharma, and jobs data in focus

• Earnings to watch: Palantir (Mon); AMD, Uber, Arista, Pfizer, Amgen (Tue); Novo Nordisk, Qualcomm, DoorDash, McDonald’s (Wed); AstraZeneca, Arm Holdings (Thu); KKR, Constellation Energy (Fri). With AI infrastructure spend and healthcare regulation in focus, these reports will test investor conviction in two of 2025's most crowded themes. Watch AMD’s update for guidance on chip demand and margins, while Palantir’s results will offer clues on public-sector AI adoption. Novo Nordisk’s figures may also reveal how the pricing debate is evolving post-Trump’s pharmaceutical comments.
• Macro calendar: The ADP employment report (Wed) and ISM services (Wed) are key signals for the health of the U.S. labour market, especially with the official Nonfarm Payrolls report postponed again due to the government shutdown. Meanwhile, the ISM manufacturing PMI (Mon) and S&P Global PMIs offer broader views on input costs and pricing pressure. Fed speakers (Paulson, Musalem, Williams) across the week could shape expectations heading into the December FOMC meeting. Friday brings the University of Michigan sentiment survey, expected to reflect stable but cautious consumer sentiment, alongside consumer credit data.
• Other catalysts: The BoE policy meeting (Thu) is expected to hold rates steady at 5.25%, though forward guidance could shift if UK inflation surprises. The OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) convenes midweek following the bloc’s decision to pause further supply hikes—expect focus on Q1 compliance and demand forecasts. In Asia, China’s October trade data (Fri) could offer insight into export demand and local recovery momentum.
• Local watchpoints: In Denmark, Novo Nordisk and the broader health sector will set the tone. The Netherlands’ AEX remains linked to U.S. chip sentiment via ASML and NXP. In Belgium, financials may react to shifting ECB expectations and a stabilising euro. Swiss defensives also remain sensitive to U.S. bond moves, while UK large-caps could move on BoE and GBP volatility.

Bottom line: the policy pivot is in place, but confirmation is key—on earnings, inflation, and the consumer. This week delivers early signals.* the policy pivot is in place, but confirmation is key—on earnings, inflation, and the consumer.

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Conclusion

October gave investors a template for 2026: easier policy, selective stock leadership, and more scrutiny on margins. It was a month shaped by central bank pivots, headline-grabbing earnings, and a reassessment of inflation expectations. Investors stepped back into risk, but with one foot still on the brake.

November starts with a data gap, but market expectations remain high. Whether the soft landing narrative holds will depend on how labour markets and consumption evolve—and whether corporate guidance confirms the optimism priced in.

October’s playbook now faces its November test. Stay nimble, stay hedged.