Macro Dragon: Snapshot & Anthems...
Summary: Macro Dragon = Cross-Asset Daily Views that could cover anything from tactical positioning, to long-term thematic investments, key events & inflection points in the markets, all with the objective of consistent wealth creation overtime.
Macro Dragon: Snapshot & Anthems...
Top of Mind…
- Snapshot: Looks like Gold & Silver are trying to find their footing off of the previous days sell-off as they clocked +0.21% & +2.90% to 1937 & 25.84.
- Brent +2.65 42.60 also recovering, all whilst we continued to have very big day in equities with the S&P + Nasdaq up +1.4% & 2.6% to 3380 & 11158.
- FX saw a reversal in USD strength & the EUR getting back over that 1.18 handle… yes 1.20 is a given in KVP’s book
- Those looking for more on Biden’s VP Harris, decent list as its not all roses & rainbows that for sure. We chatted about this on yest’s Dragon.
Anthems – make some time for these if you have missed them:
- Rising US yields rip through gold and silver in chaotic move feat Peter, Ole & Steen
- Presidential candidate Joe Biden chose Kamala Harris as his vice president – House View from Jakobsen
- Q2 earnings were worse than expected but investors are pricing a ‘new world’ – Garnry take
- Emerging Markets Brief : Pulling the trigger – Dembik checking in on EM including Turkey
- Crude oil still looking for a break – Hansen’s latest on the black gold
To Keep In Mind Today
- AU: Aussie jobs data beat massively on headline numbers & revisions, yet note they changed the format of how they measure things – so would take these with a grain of salt & dig deeper. Still Aussie up +14bp which is neither here nor there…
- Early doors tmr we have RBA’s Lowe speaking @ 07:30 SGT
- EZ: GER CPI
- US: Jobless Claims, Nat. Gas storage, 30yr bond auction
Start-to-End = Gratitude + Integrity + Vision + Tenacity. Process > Outcome. Sizing > Idea.
This is the wayKVP
Latest Market Insights
Outrageous Predictions 2023: The War Economy
- The constantly growing global need for energy drives the world's richest to huddle up and launch a R&D project in a size the world hasn't seen since the Manhattan Project gave the US the first atomic bomb.
French President Macron resignsThe political stalemate in France and the rise of Marie Le Pen following the 2022 elections corners President Macron, forcing him to give up on politics and resign from his position. At least for now.
Gold rockets to USD 3,000 as central banks fail on inflation mandateAs markets and central banks realise that the idea that inflation is transitory is wrong, and that prices will remain higher for longer, gold is sent through the roof, hitting a price tag of USD 3,000
EU Army forces EU down path to full unionWith continued challenges in the region and a US military that isn't aggressively enacting its former role as global policeman, the European Union agrees to create its own armed forces, bringing the whole region closer.
A country agrees to ban all meat production by 2030In an effort to become one of the global leaders on the path to net-zero emissions, one country decides to not only put a heavy tax on meat, but to ban domestic production entirely.
UK holds UnBrexit referendumFollowing a recession and domestic pressure, the United Kingdom is thrown into political turmoil that will end with a vote to wind back Brexit.
Widespread price controls are introduced to cap official inflationHistory tells us that with the war economy comes rationing and price controls. And this time is no different, as policymakers introduce strict price controls that lead to a range of unintended consequences.
OPEC+ & Chindia walk out of the IMF, agree to trade with new reserve assetSanctions against Russia have caused widespread turmoil due to US Dollar moves in countries across the globe that don't consider the US an ally. To relieve themselves from this, they leave the IMF and create a new reserve asset.
USDJPY fixed to the USD at 200 as Japan overhauls financial systemFollowing the challenges that faced the Japanese Yen in 2022, the Bank of Japan attempts to keep the currency from sliding. Unsuccessful on the long-term, Japan will launch a reset of its entire financial system.
Tax haven ban kills private equityWith the war economy comes an increased focus on national interests and sovereign nations' ability to assert themselves. In that regard, the OECD countries turn their attention on tax havens and pull the big guns out, banning them altogether.