Instrument: Jan 2019 Fed Fund future
Price Target: 97.70
Market Price: 97.9250
Entry: 97.9250
Stop: 98.200
Target: 97.70
Time Horizon: 2-3 weeks
Background
(UPDATE: We are successfully closing this trade for a total portfolio return of 1.28%. We had initiated this tactical short – when markets were running for the hills – from 97.9250, risking 200 basis points with a target of 97.7500 and a stop at 98.20.
The target was hit overnight and the trade was almost immediately in the money on what in hindsight appears perfect timing.
We still have the Jan 2020 short trade; the target there is 97.3400 and wehit 97.3500 overnight. It remains early days for this trade with risk-on afoot in equities, US 10-year yields about to re-cross 3%, and the metl-up in tech and the Russell 2000 continuing apace. We expect this trade to reach its target.)
This outlines a tactical short in Jan 2019 Fed Fund futures given adverse moves over the last few trading days, with the market price at 97.9250 in Asia on Wednesday morning, the market is implying 1.5x hikes between now and the end of 2018. We have gone from warming up to expecting four hikes since 2018 to now expecting only a total of 2.5x for the whole of 2018.
The tactical thesis here is that this has been a overshoot, driven by position clearing out, risks in Europe, EM and the Korean Peninsula, etc...
Management and risk description
The key risks are of course... the storm is still building up and we could have:
A lot more pain on the position clearing that we’ve been seeing in the Fed Fund futures (i.e. more noise)
Italy/Spain/Europe risks have a bigger spillover effect into markets
And of course the biggest risk of them all – the Fed does not hike on Jun 13… which would cause the mother of all expectations to be repriced…
Parameters
Entry: 97.9250
Stop: 200bps risk with a stop at 98.200 (which would imply 0.40x of a hike for rest of 2018)
Target: Targetting circa. 97.70/75, yet as always with an option to close down the position earlier if we feel the need to.
Time horizon: 2-3 weeks (14 days to potential June 13 Fed hike)
The market is trying to get back to the pre-Covid and pre-war times, but that model is broken. A new dawn is here and the financial world needs to adapt.
Steen Jakobsen,
Chief Investment Officer
A political switch in China towards less tough control of its people and companies may kick things back into gear.
Redmond Wong,
Market Strategist
While the economic situation in Europe may not be as bad as feared, there's still a plethora of things to fix.
Chris Dembik,
Head of Macroeconomic Research
As the world turns increasingly bipolar, equity markets face harsh times as they transition into the new reality.
Peter Garnry,
Head of Equity Strategy
New alliances and collaborations outside of China may lead to prosperous times in Asia.
Charu Chanana,
Market Strategist
For years, it was thought that the balanced portfolio was a thing of the past. But recent developments may have changed that.
Peter Siks,
Investment Coach
Following a dramatic and volatile 2022 with good returns, a lot of this year's commodity performance may be driven by Chinese politics.
Ole S. Hansen,
Head of Commodity Strategy
2023 could be a tough year for currencies but EUR and JPY may have some upside.
John J. Hardy,
Head of FX Strategy
The commodity-heavy Australian market may have a good start to 2023, as the Chinese focus on growth signals demand for Aussie resources.
Jessica Amir,
Market Strategist
From a near-perfect environment for speculative assets before 2022 to the opposite, crypto faces fundamental challenges.
Mads Eberhardt,
Cryptocurrency Analyst
