Senior Relationship Manager
Good Morning,
News of the day came with a report by the Wall Street Journal that that Saudia Arabia was boosting oil output but the move was reversed on the denial.
Oil fell app. 5 USD only to make it all back. Gold and Silver followed the move to a lesser extent.
Equities traded a little lower yesterday on Chinese lockdown news bit Indexes only fell by 0.4% (S&P500) and 1.1% (Nasdaq)
Top Movers were Disney where the return of Bob Igner boostes confidence and the stock rose 6.3%, loser of the day was Tesla, where a recall caused the stock to fall by almost 7% and the stock has lost app. 30% in November. Total Volume was only 9.4 billion versus a 20 day average of 11.8 bio.
Grindr turned out to be a thrilling IPO, On Friday we traded from 17 to 71.5 USD and closed at 36.5, yesterday, shares lost 46%.
The USD Index rose a little yesterday, technically the most interesting is EURUSD having failed the initial test of the 200d Moving average which is at 1.04 at the moment to trade at 1.0250. GBPUSD is 1.1825 and USDJPY 141.87.
Gold tested the 1735 support yesterday and Silver fell as low as 20.60, now 1741 and 21.07.
As we saw yesterday in oil, the market is thin and can me pushed easily. I would expect this to remain for the rest of the week. Make sure your risk management is sound and the position size in line with sharp moves.
Economic data:
Tuesday: EU Consumer Confidence
Wednesday European and US PMIs
Thursday: DE IFO, Swedish and Turkish rate decisions
Friday: DE GDP
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.