Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Senior Relationship Manager
Good Morning,
It is indeed a strange market where a 50 BPS hike by the Fed causes one of the best days in the equities markets since 2020.
The Fed hiked 50 BPS as expected and will reduce the balance sheet from June at an initial combined monthly pace of $47.5 billion but he fact that Powell took a 75BPS hike off the table sparked risk on sentiment and weakened the USD.
The Dow gains 2.81% the S&P 500 3%, Nasdaq up 3.2%, Silver gained a full USD and is now at 23.10, Gold is testing the 1900 and EURUSD and GBPUSD are trading higher at 1.0596 and 1.2540.
Shell reported on Thursday a record first-quarter profit of $9.13 billion, BMW also exceeds expectations. UniCredit announced a buyback of 1.6 Bio. Starbucks gained 10% on strong income,
This morning the German Industrial Orders came much worse than expected at -4.7% vs -1.1% expected.
The Bank Of England Rate decision in likely the Event of the day, a 25 Basis Point hike is expected with a probability of 100%, US Labor data at 14:30 will also be watched closely for hints at the Nonfarm Payroll number tomorrow.
Expiries
Physically Settled Futures:
CK2 will expire on 6th May at 09:00 GMT.
FPK2 will expire on 11th May at 15:00 GMT.
Expiring CFDs:
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