Morning Brew May 5 2022
Senior Relationship Manager
It is indeed a strange market where a 50 BPS hike by the Fed causes one of the best days in the equities markets since 2020.
The Fed hiked 50 BPS as expected and will reduce the balance sheet from June at an initial combined monthly pace of $47.5 billion but he fact that Powell took a 75BPS hike off the table sparked risk on sentiment and weakened the USD.
The Dow gains 2.81% the S&P 500 3%, Nasdaq up 3.2%, Silver gained a full USD and is now at 23.10, Gold is testing the 1900 and EURUSD and GBPUSD are trading higher at 1.0596 and 1.2540.
Shell reported on Thursday a record first-quarter profit of $9.13 billion, BMW also exceeds expectations. UniCredit announced a buyback of 1.6 Bio. Starbucks gained 10% on strong income,
This morning the German Industrial Orders came much worse than expected at -4.7% vs -1.1% expected.
The Bank Of England Rate decision in likely the Event of the day, a 25 Basis Point hike is expected with a probability of 100%, US Labor data at 14:30 will also be watched closely for hints at the Nonfarm Payroll number tomorrow.
Physically Settled Futures:
CK2 will expire on 6th May at 09:00 GMT.
FPK2 will expire on 11th May at 15:00 GMT.
GASOILUKMAY22 will expire on 10th May at 15:00 GMT.
OILUSJUN22 will expire on 18th May at 15:00 GMT.
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022: The End Game has arrived
- Shocks from covid and the war in Ukraine have forced the global financial and political world to change, but what will the end game be?
Productivity and innovation have never been more importantAs the world economy hits physical limits and central banks tighten their belts, could equities be facing a 10-15% downside?
The great EUR recovery and the difficulty of trading itIf the terrible fog of war hopefully lifts soon, the conditions are promising for the euro to reprice significantly higher.
Tight commodity markets – turbocharged by war and sanctionsWith supply already tight, commodities keep powering on. But will it last for yet another quarter?
Between a rock and a hard placeGeopolitical concerns will add upward price pressures and fears of slower growth, while volatility will remain elevated.
The Great ErosionInflation is everywhere and central banks try to combat it. But will they get it under control in time?
Australian investing: Six considerations amid triple Rs: rising rates, record inflation and likely recessionWhile global financial markets are struggling in an uncertain world, the commodity-heavy Australian ASX index is poised to keep a positive momentum.
Cybersecurity – the rush to catch up with realityWith the invasion of Ukraine, governments and private companies are rushing to reinforce their cyber defenses.