Morning Brew May 23 2022
Senior Relationship Manager
We saw an interesting end to an interesting week with the S&P unchanged and just above Bear Mode (-20% off the top), The Dow also moved only 0.03% and the Nasdaq gave up ground on renewed selling pressure on Tesla, weighing on Tech overall.
News that Elon Musk allegedly paid off an employee to remain quiet on sexual harassment in 2016 triggered the negative sentiment, normally this should not justify a 6% move in the stock but after falling out of the Sustainability Index and getting involved in political disputes, it did sparked risk aversion.
The Nasdaq closed down 27% from its record in November 2021.
There is some hope that the fed will take asset prices into consideration it we move lower and this is boosting equities over the weekend, Indexes rise app 1-1.5% since Friday. The Dax is testing the 14200 just now with more resistance, a daily close above 14,227 would make a move to around 14,600 maybe 14,900 not unlikely.
The USD is giving up more ground with the USD Index falling to 102.62, EURUSD is trading at 1.06 and GBPUSD at 1.2570. Gold is back at 1853 and Silver testing the 22 (21.93) USDJPY is below the 128.
U.S. President Joe Biden said on Monday he would be willing to use force to defend Taiwan.
Todays agenda remains thin with only the German IFO index on the Agenda at 10:00, Tomorrow international PMI will be released through the day.
Physically Settled Futures:
PAM2 will expire 23rd May at 15:00 GMT.
NGM2 will expire 25rd May at 19:30 GMT.
ENAM2 will expire 27rd May at 09:30 GMT.
FLGM2, TTFMM2 will expire 27rd May at 15:00 GMT.
NATGASUSJUN22 will expire 24th May at 15:00 GMT.
10YUSTNOTEJUN22, 30YUSTBONDJUN22, GASOLINEUSJUN22, GOLDJUN22, HEATINGOILJUN22 will expire 27th May at 15:00 GMT.
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022: The End Game has arrived
- Shocks from covid and the war in Ukraine have forced the global financial and political world to change, but what will the end game be?
Productivity and innovation have never been more importantAs the world economy hits physical limits and central banks tighten their belts, could equities be facing a 10-15% downside?
The great EUR recovery and the difficulty of trading itIf the terrible fog of war hopefully lifts soon, the conditions are promising for the euro to reprice significantly higher.
Tight commodity markets – turbocharged by war and sanctionsWith supply already tight, commodities keep powering on. But will it last for yet another quarter?
Between a rock and a hard placeGeopolitical concerns will add upward price pressures and fears of slower growth, while volatility will remain elevated.
The Great ErosionInflation is everywhere and central banks try to combat it. But will they get it under control in time?
Australian investing: Six considerations amid triple Rs: rising rates, record inflation and likely recessionWhile global financial markets are struggling in an uncertain world, the commodity-heavy Australian ASX index is poised to keep a positive momentum.
Cybersecurity – the rush to catch up with realityWith the invasion of Ukraine, governments and private companies are rushing to reinforce their cyber defenses.