Senior Relationship Manager
Good Morning,
We saw an interesting end to an interesting week with the S&P unchanged and just above Bear Mode (-20% off the top), The Dow also moved only 0.03% and the Nasdaq gave up ground on renewed selling pressure on Tesla, weighing on Tech overall.
News that Elon Musk allegedly paid off an employee to remain quiet on sexual harassment in 2016 triggered the negative sentiment, normally this should not justify a 6% move in the stock but after falling out of the Sustainability Index and getting involved in political disputes, it did sparked risk aversion.
The Nasdaq closed down 27% from its record in November 2021.
There is some hope that the fed will take asset prices into consideration it we move lower and this is boosting equities over the weekend, Indexes rise app 1-1.5% since Friday. The Dax is testing the 14200 just now with more resistance, a daily close above 14,227 would make a move to around 14,600 maybe 14,900 not unlikely.
The USD is giving up more ground with the USD Index falling to 102.62, EURUSD is trading at 1.06 and GBPUSD at 1.2570. Gold is back at 1853 and Silver testing the 22 (21.93) USDJPY is below the 128.
U.S. President Joe Biden said on Monday he would be willing to use force to defend Taiwan.
Todays agenda remains thin with only the German IFO index on the Agenda at 10:00, Tomorrow international PMI will be released through the day.
Expiries
Physically Settled Futures:
PAM2 will expire 23rd May at 15:00 GMT.
NGM2 will expire 25rd May at 19:30 GMT.
ENAM2 will expire 27rd May at 09:30 GMT.
FLGM2, TTFMM2 will expire 27rd May at 15:00 GMT.
Expiring CFDs:
NATGASUSJUN22 will expire 24th May at 15:00 GMT.
10YUSTNOTEJUN22, 30YUSTBONDJUN22, GASOLINEUSJUN22, GOLDJUN22, HEATINGOILJUN22 will expire 27th May at 15:00 GMT.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.