Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew March 4 2024

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  ECB, NFP, Fed Speakers, Powell Testimony as well as Geo-Politcs while Gold breaks out


Good Morning,

So far there is little weakness visible in equities – except in US regional Banks. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq closed at record highs, Nvidia closed above the 2 trillion Mark for the first time, Dell had the largest gain in it`s history with a jump of 31%. The US 500 is trading at 5131 and the US Tech 100 NAS 18310 and the GER40 17740. In Japan, the Japan 225 has risen more than 20% this year and is trading at 40125.

Shares in New York Community Bancorp lost 25% after the bank found material weakness in internal controls.

Yields are trading a little lower at 4.21 for the 10 yead and the USD Index fell back to below the 104 to trade at 103.86. EURUSD is 1.0845, Cable 1.2660 and USDJPY 150.36. Bitcoin is 63500 and Gold and Silver 2082 and 23.10. Gold broke the resistance on Friday and Fintwit was full of speculation it we see sellers up here like in early December or if there will be a confirmation and new highs.

Opec has agreed to extend the prodiction cuts into q2 , causing oil to rise slightly.

As Charu opoints out in her weekly FX Chartbook: This week, all eyes turn to US jobs data and Powell’s testimony, pivotal in gauging the Fed's trajectory. Despite potential dollar weakness from a NFP miss, FX focus may lean towards crosses over dollar pairs. EUR braces for ECB, while GBP awaits fiscal cues. China's policy direction during the two-sessions could sway AUD more than the yuan. Swiss CPI could impact March rate cut speculations, while NZD's carry appeal remains a steady beacon amidst the flux. Stay vigilant as the market interprets these key events, shaping FX trajectories in the week ahead.

Ole points out that #Gold's +1% YTD gain is impressive during a period of multiple headwinds from the dollar rising 2.4%, 10-year yields jumping 30 bps and 2024 rate cut expectations are halved. ETFs have seen 100 tons of outflows while specs in #GC_f have halved their net long to 68k lots, a 191 tons reduction

Key this week will be geopolitics with a possible ceasefire in Gaza, there is a smaller number of key data releases this week but the ECB Rate decision on Thursday and the US nonfarm Payroll are extremely important. Last but not least, we expect a large number of Fed speakers, Christine Lagardes Press conference on Thursday and Joe Bidens State of the Union on Friday.

Monday
- Data  No Key Data, Patrick Harker speaks at 17:00
- Earnings: Archer-Daniels-Midlan China Tower, Sea,

Tuesday
- Data Japan CPI, International PMI, US Factory Orders M. Barr speaks
- Earnings: Thales, Lindt & Sprüngli, Bayer, Ferguson, Ross Stores, Franco-Nevada, CrowdStrike Holdings, Target

Wednesday
- Data AU GDP, Canada Rate decision,  Powell testifies, Beige Book, Kashkari speaks
- Earnings: Deutsche Post, Brown-Forma JD.com, Legal & General, Merck KGaA,

Thursday
- Data China Trade Data, ECB rate decision, Initial Jobless claims  Powell testifies, Mester speaks
- Earnings: MTR Corp, Techtronic Industries, PRADA, Costco Wholesale, Broadcom, Marvell, Mongo., Samsara, Kroger, Continental.

Friday
- Data EU GDP, Nonfarm Payroll , Biden delivers the state of the Union
- Earnings: Oracle, China Unicom, ZTEmi

 

 

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto...
  • FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ...
  • Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c...
  • Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperfo...
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynami...
  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore the "two-lane economy," European equities, energy commodities, and the impact of US fiscal p...
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Quarterly Outlook

    Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain ...
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities i...

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15
2900
Hellerup
Denmark

Contact Saxo

Select region

International
International

Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank A/S and is not specific to any entity of Saxo Bank Group. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank A/S and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank A/S and thus governed by Danish Law.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.