Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew March 4 2024

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  ECB, NFP, Fed Speakers, Powell Testimony as well as Geo-Politcs while Gold breaks out

Good Morning,

So far there is little weakness visible in equities – except in US regional Banks. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq closed at record highs, Nvidia closed above the 2 trillion Mark for the first time, Dell had the largest gain in it`s history with a jump of 31%. The US 500 is trading at 5131 and the US Tech 100 NAS 18310 and the GER40 17740. In Japan, the Japan 225 has risen more than 20% this year and is trading at 40125.

Shares in New York Community Bancorp lost 25% after the bank found material weakness in internal controls.

Yields are trading a little lower at 4.21 for the 10 yead and the USD Index fell back to below the 104 to trade at 103.86. EURUSD is 1.0845, Cable 1.2660 and USDJPY 150.36. Bitcoin is 63500 and Gold and Silver 2082 and 23.10. Gold broke the resistance on Friday and Fintwit was full of speculation it we see sellers up here like in early December or if there will be a confirmation and new highs.

Opec has agreed to extend the prodiction cuts into q2 , causing oil to rise slightly.

As Charu opoints out in her weekly FX Chartbook: This week, all eyes turn to US jobs data and Powell’s testimony, pivotal in gauging the Fed's trajectory. Despite potential dollar weakness from a NFP miss, FX focus may lean towards crosses over dollar pairs. EUR braces for ECB, while GBP awaits fiscal cues. China's policy direction during the two-sessions could sway AUD more than the yuan. Swiss CPI could impact March rate cut speculations, while NZD's carry appeal remains a steady beacon amidst the flux. Stay vigilant as the market interprets these key events, shaping FX trajectories in the week ahead.

Ole points out that #Gold's +1% YTD gain is impressive during a period of multiple headwinds from the dollar rising 2.4%, 10-year yields jumping 30 bps and 2024 rate cut expectations are halved. ETFs have seen 100 tons of outflows while specs in #GC_f have halved their net long to 68k lots, a 191 tons reduction

Key this week will be geopolitics with a possible ceasefire in Gaza, there is a smaller number of key data releases this week but the ECB Rate decision on Thursday and the US nonfarm Payroll are extremely important. Last but not least, we expect a large number of Fed speakers, Christine Lagardes Press conference on Thursday and Joe Bidens State of the Union on Friday.

- Data  No Key Data, Patrick Harker speaks at 17:00
- Earnings: Archer-Daniels-Midlan China Tower, Sea,

- Data Japan CPI, International PMI, US Factory Orders M. Barr speaks
- Earnings: Thales, Lindt & Sprüngli, Bayer, Ferguson, Ross Stores, Franco-Nevada, CrowdStrike Holdings, Target

- Data AU GDP, Canada Rate decision,  Powell testifies, Beige Book, Kashkari speaks
- Earnings: Deutsche Post, Brown-Forma, Legal & General, Merck KGaA,

- Data China Trade Data, ECB rate decision, Initial Jobless claims  Powell testifies, Mester speaks
- Earnings: MTR Corp, Techtronic Industries, PRADA, Costco Wholesale, Broadcom, Marvell, Mongo., Samsara, Kroger, Continental.

- Data EU GDP, Nonfarm Payroll , Biden delivers the state of the Union
- Earnings: Oracle, China Unicom, ZTEmi




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