Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew March 14 2022

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  Key week for global markets - Risk on and Higher USD today


Good Morning,

We are going into a week that should be extremely interesting.

Diplomatic efforts to resolve the Ukraine crises are intensifying even as fighting remains fierce.

After a weak end of the week, Equities are friendly this morning, except the US500, which is losing 0.5%.. The US30  is at 33200, +0.7%, the US 500 at 4234 or -0.5%, the USTECH100 13370 or +0.5%, the GER40 gains 2.5% to trade at 13880.

The current average move per Day for the GER40 is at 660 points, the average for the last year is 250, calling for smaller position sizes.

Gold gives up 12.7 USD to trade at 1975, Silver is 25.65, EURUSD 1.0918 and GBPUSD at 1.3020.  The USD Index rose to 99.25 as US 10 Year Yields exceed 2% in the forefront of the FOMC. Current probabilities are a hike of 25 bps with a probability of 93% and 50 bps with 7%.

From Ole`s Commodity Update:

The Bloomberg Commodity Spot index jumped a massive 11.2% during the reporting week, with gains being led by industrial metals, and not least energy where crude oil surged higher by 20% before suffering a major correction the day after the reporting week ended. Overall it was another week where surging volatility across most commodities saw money managers cut both long and short position, the net result being a small 2% reduction in the overall long across 24 major commodities to 2.17 million lots. Increasingly difficult market conditions helped trigger a 180k lots reduction across oil, fuel products and natural gas while net length was added to most other sectors led by grains and softs.

UK Oil has retreated to 109.90 from last weeks high of 138.

Reminder that US will go on Daylight Saving Time this coming weekend. The clocks are rolled forward one hour. As a result the US Exchanges will trade 14:30 CET to 21 CET until March 27,

As a result of this please be aware of the following changes to trading hours during the next 2 weeks, until Europe also moves to daylight savings on March 27th and there are changes to the ICE trading schedule you can see in the trading conditions.

China is suffering increased Covid Cases and has shut down public transport in Shenzen, Two key apple suppliers, Foxconn and Unimicron have halted production

Ride haling company DIDI lost 40% in the NY listing on Friday. 

Today is rather thin in terms of economic data, tomorrow we will see the UK Employment data at 8:00 CET, German ZEW at 11 along with the EU Industrial Production and the US OOI at 13:30.

Wednesday the FOMC rate decision will be one of the weeks key events.

As said last week, check your risk in the market and trade safely.

 

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/saxoselect-disclaimer/disclaimer)

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15
2900
Hellerup
Denmark

Contact Saxo

Select region

International
International

Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank A/S and is not specific to any entity of Saxo Bank Group. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank A/S and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank A/S and thus governed by Danish Law.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.