Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew June 24 2021

Erik
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Good Morning

Strong economic data and hawkish messages from the Fed are putting investors and traders on edge. Initially the strong PMIs drove risk sentiment yesterday, Equities, EUR, Gond and Silver could gain but hawkish comments out of the fed brought us back to similar levels we traded yesterday morning. The Dow closed -0.21%, the S&P 500 -0.11% and the Nasdaq +0.13%. Dax trades at 15500, the USD Index 91.82, US 10 Year rates at 1.49 and Bitcoin at 32636. Gold and Silver tried to break higher yesterday but failed to hold on to the gains, watch for the 200d MA in Silver at 25.70.

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and Fed Governor Michelle Bowman both hinted at the inflation – while temporary – would remain longer than previously thought and that rate hikes may be necessary in 2022 not 2023. Janet Yellen expects inflation to normalize next year. I would expect the tapering discussion to gain traction soon if data remains as strong.

  • The Biden administration banned U.S. imports of a key solar panel material from Hoshine Silicon Industry Co over forced labor allegations.
  • In August the US will face default risk once again unless the debt ceiling is raised.
  • Tesla rallies 5.3% after opening solar charging station.
  • John McAfee was found dead after his extradition to the US was approved.
  • Fannie Mae stocks and Freddie Mac drops more than 25% after the US Supreme Court rejects investor statutory claims against the companies.
  • Brazil reports the highest number of Covid infections ever with more than 115k

Todays Key Events are the German IFO Index at 10:00 CET, the BOE at 13:00 CET and US Data at 14:30, any hint at still rising inflation may pressure the FED to commit.

In the BOE Rate decision at 13:00, no rate change is expected (Probability 99%) but the two focus points will be the Central Banks stance on the QE Program and any hint at a shift in the schedule of interest rate increases, currently expected for May 22. Any surprise here can cause sharp moves in GBP Crosses.

Local Start Date

Local Time

Country/Region

Indicator Name

Period

Reuters Poll

Unit

24 Jun 2021

06:30

Netherlands

GDP Final SA QQ

Q1

-0.5%

Percent

24 Jun 2021

06:30

Netherlands

GDP Final NSA YY

Q1

Percent

24 Jun 2021

08:00

Germany

Import Prices MM

May

Percent

24 Jun 2021

08:00

Germany

Import Prices YY

May

11.3%

Percent

24 Jun 2021

08:45

France

Business Climate Mfg

Jun

110

Net balance

24 Jun 2021

09:00

Spain

GDP QQ

Q1

-0.5%

Percent

24 Jun 2021

09:00

Spain

GDP YY

Q1

-4.3%

Percent

24 Jun 2021

10:00

Germany

Ifo Business Climate New

Jun

100.1

Index

24 Jun 2021

10:00

Germany

Ifo Curr Conditions New

Jun

97.5

Index

24 Jun 2021

10:00

Germany

Ifo Expectations New

Jun

103.5

Index

24 Jun 2021

13:00

United Kingdom

BOE Bank Rate

Jun

0.10%

Percent

24 Jun 2021

13:00

United Kingdom

GB BOE QE Corp

Jun

20B

GBP

24 Jun 2021

13:00

United Kingdom

BOE MPC Vote Hike

Jun

0

Number of

24 Jun 2021

13:00

United Kingdom

BOE MPC Vote Unchanged

Jun

9

Number of

24 Jun 2021

13:00

United Kingdom

BOE MPC Vote Cut

Jun

0

Number of

24 Jun 2021

14:30

United States

Durable Goods

May

2.7%

Percent

24 Jun 2021

14:30

United States

Durables Ex-Transport

May

0.7%

Percent

24 Jun 2021

14:30

United States

GDP Final

Q1

6.4%

Percent

24 Jun 2021

14:30

United States

GDP Deflator Final

Q1

4.3%

Percent

24 Jun 2021

14:30

United States

Core PCE Prices Fnal

Q1

2.5%

Percent

24 Jun 2021

14:30

United States

Initial Jobless Clm

19 Jun,

380k

Person

24 Jun 2021

14:30

United States

Cont Jobless Clm

12 Jun,

3.458M

Person

25 Jun 2021

00:45

New Zealand

Imports

May

NZD

25 Jun 2021

00:45

New Zealand

Trade Balance

May

NZD

25 Jun 2021

00:45

New Zealand

Annual Trade Balance

May

NZD

25 Jun 2021

00:45

New Zealand

Exports

May

NZD

(Refinitiv)

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/saxoselect-disclaimer/disclaimer)

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15
2900
Hellerup
Denmark

Contact Saxo

Select region

International
International

Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank A/S and is not specific to any entity of Saxo Bank Group. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank A/S and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank A/S and thus governed by Danish Law.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.