Senior Relationship Manager
Good Morning from Amsterdam where I will have the pleasure of working for the next two weeks or so.
After the Nonfarm Payroll on Friday it seems the overall consensus is that the number was strong enough to be a sign of a strong economy while not strong enough to cause increased rate or tapering pressure. The S&P 500 posted its longest streak of record closes since June 1997.
While most European PMI were positive, the Chinese was fairly bad at 50.3 after 55.1 the previous month and over night Chinese stocks came under some pressure with the health care sector losing 5% and the broader indexes app. 0.5%.
Inflation expectation in the EU are at the highest level since May at 1.6% for the five year-five year.
Opec+ cancelled talks to extend the production curbs letting Brent rise to above USD 77.
The Royal Bank of Australia leaves rates in place but reduces QE 20% to 4 billion AUD, letting AUDUSD rise to 0.7570
The USD Index falls to 92.11 from 92.74 on Friday with EURUSD rising to 1.1887, Cable at 1.3887. Gold could breach the 1800 again and Silver trades at 26.65.
Natural Gas futures in Europe are trading at all-time highs and electricity prices are at decade high levels.
Uber Competitor Didi was apparently asked to delay the IPO while an investigation was pending. On Sunday the Cyberspace Administration of China ordered a halt of further downloads.
Today the German ZEW Index and the US PMI will be of importance, in my view, only a clearer picture on tapering from the ECB and the Fed will be able to have a real directional impact. Central bank balance sheets and Indexes correlate well. Therefore the key event of the week will be the Fed minutes tomorrow.
Local Start Date | Local Time | Country/Region | Indicator Name | Period | Reuters Poll |
6 Jul 2021 | 06:30 | Australia | RBA Cash Rate | Jul | 0.10% |
6 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | Germany | Industrial Orders MM | May | 1.0% |
6 Jul 2021 | 11:00 | Germany | ZEW Economic Sentiment | Jul | 75.2 |
6 Jul 2021 | 11:00 | Germany | ZEW Current Conditions | Jul | 5.0 |
6 Jul 2021 | 14:00 | New Zealand | Milk Auctions | 6 Jul, w/e | |
6 Jul 2021 | 15:45 | United States | Markit Comp Final PMI | Jun | |
6 Jul 2021 | 15:45 | United States | Markit Svcs PMI Final | Jun | |
6 Jul 2021 | 16:00 | United States | ISM N-Mfg PMI | Jun | 63.5 |
7 Jul 2021 | 05:00 | New Zealand | Reserve Assets Total | Jun | |
7 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | Germany | Industrial Output MM | May | 0.5% |
7 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | Halifax House Prices MM | Jun | |
7 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | Norway | Reserve Assets Total | Jun | |
7 Jul 2021 | 08:45 | France | Reserve Assets Total | Jun | |
7 Jul 2021 | 09:00 | Switzerland | Forex Reserves CHF | Jun | |
7 Jul 2021 | 14:00 | Brazil | Retail Sales YY | May | 16.45% |
8 Jul 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | Current Account NSA JPY | May | 1,820.4B |
8 Jul 2021 | 14:00 | Brazil | IPCA Inflation Index MM | Jun | 0.60% |
8 Jul 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Initial Jobless Clm | 3 Jul, w/e | 350k |
9 Jul 2021 | 03:30 | China (Mainland) | PPI YY | Jun | 8.8% |
9 Jul 2021 | 03:30 | China (Mainland) | CPI YY | Jun | 1.3% |
9 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | GDP Est 3M/3M | May | 3.9% |
9 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | GDP Estimate MM | May | 1.5% |
9 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | GDP Estimate YY | May | 25.9% |
9 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | Manufacturing Output MM | May | 1.0% |
9 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | Norway | Consumer Price Index MM | Jun | 0.4% |
9 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | Norway | Consumer Price Index YY | Jun | 2.9% |
9 Jul 2021 | 09:00 | Turkey | Current Account Balance | May | -3.025B |
9 Jul 2021 | 14:30 | Canada | Employment Change | Jun | 195.0k |
9 Jul 2021 | 14:30 | Canada | Unemployment Rate | Jun | 7.7% |
12 Jul 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | Corp Goods Price MM | Jun | |
12 Jul 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | Corp Goods Price YY | Jun | |
12 Jul 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | Machinery Orders MM | May | |
12 Jul 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | Machinery Orders YY | May | |
12 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | Denmark | CPI YY | Jun | |
12 Jul 2021 | China (Mainland) | Total Social Financing | Jun | 2,800.00B | |
12 Jul 2021 | China (Mainland) | M2 Money Supply YY | Jun | 8.2% | |
12 Jul 2021 | China (Mainland) | New Yuan Loans | Jun | 1,800.0B |
(Refinitiv)
Bond. Long Bond(s)
With real rates being too positive, we see three scenarios: Opportunity to lock in rates at cycle high, government overreach to keep the economy afloat or a complete reset of the economy.
Steen Jakobsen,
Chief Investment Officer
Is a bond bull market ahead? Inflation still poses a risk for investors, but the moment for increasing duration to your portfolio may be approaching towards the end of the year, when central banks might be forced to cut interest rates.
Althea Spinozzi,
Senior Fixed Income Strategist
The furious rate hike cycle has brought gains in the US dollar, but with stagflation risks in Europe and the UK and weakness in the Chinese economy, USD may have more room to run. But a strong dollar could also have repercussions for US growth, emerging markets and commodity prices.
Charu Chanana,
Market Strategist
With the cost of capital rising painfully, stagflation fears are back, illuminating the fragile state of the green transformation, while giving a tailwind to nuclear power, and threatening the growth of AI-related stocks.
Peter Garnry,
Head of Equity Strategy
With supply tightness not only in energy but all commodities, the momentum in commodity prices may continue, pressuring central banks to lower real rates. That could be a good setup for precious metals, including gold, silver and potentially platinum as well.
Ole S. Hansen,
Head of Commodity Strategy
As the pandemic showed, even the US Treasury can experience seismic shifts. With the government increasing the pace of issuing bonds to support fiscal spending, the complex Treasury market and regulatory constraints could spark a liquidity event.
Redmond Wong,
Market Strategist
The tide has turned for bonds. Given the current yields, bonds have become an attractive investment, with added benefits including lower risk than stocks, increased diversification and a steady stream of income unaffected by economic changes.
Peter Siks,
Investment Coach