Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew July 6 2021

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Good Morning from Amsterdam where I will have the pleasure of working for the next two weeks or so.

After the Nonfarm Payroll on Friday it seems the overall consensus is that the number was strong enough to be a sign of a strong economy while not strong enough to cause increased rate or tapering pressure. The S&P 500 posted its  longest streak of record closes since June 1997.

While most European PMI were positive, the Chinese was fairly bad at 50.3 after 55.1 the previous month and over night Chinese stocks came under some pressure with the health care sector losing 5% and the broader indexes app. 0.5%.

Inflation expectation in the EU are at the highest level since May at 1.6% for the five year-five year.

Opec+ cancelled talks to extend the production curbs letting Brent rise to above USD 77.

The Royal Bank of Australia leaves rates in place but reduces QE 20% to 4 billion AUD, letting AUDUSD rise to 0.7570

The USD Index falls to 92.11 from 92.74 on Friday with EURUSD rising to 1.1887, Cable at 1.3887. Gold could breach the 1800 again and Silver trades at 26.65.

Natural Gas futures in Europe are trading at all-time highs and electricity prices are at decade high levels.

Uber Competitor Didi was apparently asked to delay the IPO while an investigation was pending. On Sunday the Cyberspace Administration of China ordered a halt of further downloads.

Today the German ZEW Index and the US PMI will be of importance, in my view, only a clearer picture on tapering from the ECB and the Fed will be able to have a real directional impact. Central bank balance sheets and Indexes correlate well. Therefore the key event of the  week will be the Fed minutes tomorrow.

Local Start Date

Local Time

Country/Region

Indicator Name

Period

Reuters Poll

6 Jul 2021

06:30

Australia

RBA Cash Rate

Jul

0.10%

6 Jul 2021

08:00

Germany

Industrial Orders MM

May

1.0%

6 Jul 2021

11:00

Germany

ZEW Economic Sentiment

Jul

75.2

6 Jul 2021

11:00

Germany

ZEW Current Conditions

Jul

5.0

6 Jul 2021

14:00

New Zealand

Milk Auctions

6 Jul, w/e

6 Jul 2021

15:45

United States

Markit Comp Final PMI

Jun

6 Jul 2021

15:45

United States

Markit Svcs PMI Final

Jun

6 Jul 2021

16:00

United States

ISM N-Mfg PMI

Jun

63.5

7 Jul 2021

05:00

New Zealand

Reserve Assets Total

Jun

7 Jul 2021

08:00

Germany

Industrial Output MM

May

0.5%

7 Jul 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

Halifax House Prices MM

Jun

7 Jul 2021

08:00

Norway

Reserve Assets Total

Jun

7 Jul 2021

08:45

France

Reserve Assets Total

Jun

7 Jul 2021

09:00

Switzerland

Forex Reserves CHF

Jun

7 Jul 2021

14:00

Brazil

Retail Sales YY

May

16.45%

8 Jul 2021

01:50

Japan

Current Account NSA JPY

May

1,820.4B

8 Jul 2021

14:00

Brazil

IPCA Inflation Index MM

Jun

0.60%

8 Jul 2021

14:30

United States

Initial Jobless Clm

3 Jul, w/e

350k

9 Jul 2021

03:30

China (Mainland)

PPI YY

Jun

8.8%

9 Jul 2021

03:30

China (Mainland)

CPI YY

Jun

1.3%

9 Jul 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

GDP Est 3M/3M

May

3.9%

9 Jul 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

GDP Estimate MM

May

1.5%

9 Jul 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

GDP Estimate YY

May

25.9%

9 Jul 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

Manufacturing Output MM

May

1.0%

9 Jul 2021

08:00

Norway

Consumer Price Index MM

Jun

0.4%

9 Jul 2021

08:00

Norway

Consumer Price Index YY

Jun

2.9%

9 Jul 2021

09:00

Turkey

Current Account Balance

May

-3.025B

9 Jul 2021

14:30

Canada

Employment Change

Jun

195.0k

9 Jul 2021

14:30

Canada

Unemployment Rate

Jun

7.7%

12 Jul 2021

01:50

Japan

Corp Goods Price MM

Jun

12 Jul 2021

01:50

Japan

Corp Goods Price YY

Jun

12 Jul 2021

01:50

Japan

Machinery Orders MM

May

12 Jul 2021

01:50

Japan

Machinery Orders YY

May

12 Jul 2021

08:00

Denmark

CPI YY

Jun

12 Jul 2021

China (Mainland)

Total Social Financing

Jun

2,800.00B

12 Jul 2021

China (Mainland)

M2 Money Supply YY

Jun

8.2%

12 Jul 2021

China (Mainland)

New Yuan Loans

Jun

1,800.0B

(Refinitiv)


Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/saxoselect-disclaimer/disclaimer)

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15
2900
Hellerup
Denmark

Contact Saxo

Select region

International
International

Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank A/S and is not specific to any entity of Saxo Bank Group. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank A/S and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank A/S and thus governed by Danish Law.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.