Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew July 6 2021

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Good Morning from Amsterdam where I will have the pleasure of working for the next two weeks or so.

After the Nonfarm Payroll on Friday it seems the overall consensus is that the number was strong enough to be a sign of a strong economy while not strong enough to cause increased rate or tapering pressure. The S&P 500 posted its  longest streak of record closes since June 1997.

While most European PMI were positive, the Chinese was fairly bad at 50.3 after 55.1 the previous month and over night Chinese stocks came under some pressure with the health care sector losing 5% and the broader indexes app. 0.5%.

Inflation expectation in the EU are at the highest level since May at 1.6% for the five year-five year.

Opec+ cancelled talks to extend the production curbs letting Brent rise to above USD 77.

The Royal Bank of Australia leaves rates in place but reduces QE 20% to 4 billion AUD, letting AUDUSD rise to 0.7570

The USD Index falls to 92.11 from 92.74 on Friday with EURUSD rising to 1.1887, Cable at 1.3887. Gold could breach the 1800 again and Silver trades at 26.65.

Natural Gas futures in Europe are trading at all-time highs and electricity prices are at decade high levels.

Uber Competitor Didi was apparently asked to delay the IPO while an investigation was pending. On Sunday the Cyberspace Administration of China ordered a halt of further downloads.

Today the German ZEW Index and the US PMI will be of importance, in my view, only a clearer picture on tapering from the ECB and the Fed will be able to have a real directional impact. Central bank balance sheets and Indexes correlate well. Therefore the key event of the  week will be the Fed minutes tomorrow.

Local Start Date

Local Time

Country/Region

Indicator Name

Period

Reuters Poll

6 Jul 2021

06:30

Australia

RBA Cash Rate

Jul

0.10%

6 Jul 2021

08:00

Germany

Industrial Orders MM

May

1.0%

6 Jul 2021

11:00

Germany

ZEW Economic Sentiment

Jul

75.2

6 Jul 2021

11:00

Germany

ZEW Current Conditions

Jul

5.0

6 Jul 2021

14:00

New Zealand

Milk Auctions

6 Jul, w/e

6 Jul 2021

15:45

United States

Markit Comp Final PMI

Jun

6 Jul 2021

15:45

United States

Markit Svcs PMI Final

Jun

6 Jul 2021

16:00

United States

ISM N-Mfg PMI

Jun

63.5

7 Jul 2021

05:00

New Zealand

Reserve Assets Total

Jun

7 Jul 2021

08:00

Germany

Industrial Output MM

May

0.5%

7 Jul 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

Halifax House Prices MM

Jun

7 Jul 2021

08:00

Norway

Reserve Assets Total

Jun

7 Jul 2021

08:45

France

Reserve Assets Total

Jun

7 Jul 2021

09:00

Switzerland

Forex Reserves CHF

Jun

7 Jul 2021

14:00

Brazil

Retail Sales YY

May

16.45%

8 Jul 2021

01:50

Japan

Current Account NSA JPY

May

1,820.4B

8 Jul 2021

14:00

Brazil

IPCA Inflation Index MM

Jun

0.60%

8 Jul 2021

14:30

United States

Initial Jobless Clm

3 Jul, w/e

350k

9 Jul 2021

03:30

China (Mainland)

PPI YY

Jun

8.8%

9 Jul 2021

03:30

China (Mainland)

CPI YY

Jun

1.3%

9 Jul 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

GDP Est 3M/3M

May

3.9%

9 Jul 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

GDP Estimate MM

May

1.5%

9 Jul 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

GDP Estimate YY

May

25.9%

9 Jul 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

Manufacturing Output MM

May

1.0%

9 Jul 2021

08:00

Norway

Consumer Price Index MM

Jun

0.4%

9 Jul 2021

08:00

Norway

Consumer Price Index YY

Jun

2.9%

9 Jul 2021

09:00

Turkey

Current Account Balance

May

-3.025B

9 Jul 2021

14:30

Canada

Employment Change

Jun

195.0k

9 Jul 2021

14:30

Canada

Unemployment Rate

Jun

7.7%

12 Jul 2021

01:50

Japan

Corp Goods Price MM

Jun

12 Jul 2021

01:50

Japan

Corp Goods Price YY

Jun

12 Jul 2021

01:50

Japan

Machinery Orders MM

May

12 Jul 2021

01:50

Japan

Machinery Orders YY

May

12 Jul 2021

08:00

Denmark

CPI YY

Jun

12 Jul 2021

China (Mainland)

Total Social Financing

Jun

2,800.00B

12 Jul 2021

China (Mainland)

M2 Money Supply YY

Jun

8.2%

12 Jul 2021

China (Mainland)

New Yuan Loans

Jun

1,800.0B

(Refinitiv)


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