Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Taper or not to taper
Good Morning
The US CPI surprised to the upside, the headline was +0.9% monthly and 5.4% yearly, half a percent higher than expected. This makes the Fed outlook even more interesting and puts additional focus on Jerome Powell`s testimony in Congress today at 18:00 CET and tomorrow at 15:30 CET. Please find John Hardy`s assessment here.
On the release, the USD index rose 0.4% and the 10 year yields above the 1.4%. Equities held up quite well and also Gold and Silver remained fairly strong. The Dax is 90 points off the highs at 15742, the US 500 retreats 30 points. EURUSD found support at 1.1770 and is currently at 1.1789, Cable at 1.3839. Oil fell on demand concerns - China's first-half crude imports dropped
Democrats agreed on a $3.5 trillion infrastructure investment plan that they aim to include in the budget.
Lumber Futures fell +10% yesterday and gave up all of this years gains.
Today we are expecting little key economic releases but high level earnings as wall as the Powell testimony.
Key reports today are: Wells Fargo, Bank of America, Delta Air Lines, BlackRock, Citigroup Inc s well as PNC Financial Services Group. Yesterday, both JPM as well Goldman s fell on strong earnings on low interest rates.
Expiries
Physically Settled Futures:
CN1 will expire on Today at 9:00 GMT.
WQ1 will expire on 15th July at 9:00 GMT.
CLQ1 will expire on 20th July at 15:00 GMT.
Expiring CFDs:
LEANHOGSJUL21 will expire 13th July at 15:00 GMT.
OILUSAUG21 will expire on 16th July at 15:00 GMT
Local Start Date | Local Time | Country/Region | Indicator Name | Period | Reuters Poll |
14 Jul 2021 | 04:00 | New Zealand | Cash Rate | 14 Jul | 0.25% |
14 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | CPI YY | Jun | 2.2% |
14 Jul 2021 | 09:30 | Sweden | CPI MM | Jun | 0.1% |
14 Jul 2021 | 09:30 | Sweden | CPI YY | Jun | 1.3% |
14 Jul 2021 | 13:00 | Turkey | CBT Weekly Repo Rate | Jul | 19.00% |
14 Jul 2021 | 13:00 | Turkey | O/N Lending Rate | Jul | |
14 Jul 2021 | 13:00 | Turkey | O/N Borrowing Rate | Jul | |
14 Jul 2021 | 13:00 | Turkey | Late Liquidity Window Rate | Jul | |
14 Jul 2021 | 16:00 | Canada | BoC Rate Decision | 14 Jul | 0.25% |
15 Jul 2021 | 03:00 | South Korea | Bank of Korea Base Rate | Jul | |
15 Jul 2021 | 03:30 | Australia | Employment | Jun | 30.0k |
15 Jul 2021 | 03:30 | Australia | Unemployment Rate | Jun | 5.0% |
15 Jul 2021 | 04:00 | China (Mainland) | Urban Investment (YTD)YY | Jun | 12.1% |
15 Jul 2021 | 04:00 | China (Mainland) | Industrial Output YY | Jun | 7.8% |
15 Jul 2021 | 04:00 | China (Mainland) | Retail Sales YY | Jun | 11.0% |
15 Jul 2021 | 04:00 | China (Mainland) | GDP YY | Q2 | 8.1% |
15 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | Claimant Count Unem Chng | Jun | |
15 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | ILO Unemployment Rate | May | 4.7% |
15 Jul 2021 | 10:00 | Italy | CPI (EU Norm) Final MM | Jun | 0.2% |
15 Jul 2021 | 10:00 | Italy | CPI (EU Norm) Final YY | Jun | 1.3% |
15 Jul 2021 | 12:00 | Euro Zone | Reserve Assets Total | Jun | |
15 Jul 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Initial Jobless Clm | 10 Jul, w/e | 360k |
15 Jul 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Philly Fed Business Indx | Jul | 28.3 |
15 Jul 2021 | 15:15 | United States | Industrial Production MM | Jun | 0.7% |
16 Jul 2021 | 00:45 | New Zealand | CPI QQ | Q2 | |
16 Jul 2021 | 11:00 | Euro Zone | HICP Final MM | Jun | 0.3% |
16 Jul 2021 | 11:00 | Euro Zone | HICP Final YY | Jun | 1.9% |
16 Jul 2021 | 14:15 | Canada | House Starts, Annualized | Jun | 270.0k |
16 Jul 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Retail Sales MM | Jun | |
16 Jul 2021 | 16:00 | United States | U Mich Sentiment Prelim | Jul | 86.5 |
16 Jul 2021 | Japan | JP BOJ Rate Decision | 16 Jul | -0.10% |
(Refinitiv)
A new fragmented world order can render some of today's infrastructure obselete, but it also calls for massive new investments across the globe, which requires a new set of strategic and tactical investment strategies.
Steen Jakobsen,
Chief Investment Officer
As globalisation turns to fragmentation, China seems set on playing a role in the global economy, while simultaneously working towards proofing its own economic situation from external shocks and crises.
Redmond Wong,
Market Strategist
The recent bank runs and ensuing challenges are reminicent of something we've seen before. Will it end like the S&L crises of 1986 and 1995?
Chris Dembik,
Head of Macroeconomic Research
Equity markets need to recalibrate to another - fragmented - global world. What's your view on equities in this market - are they going up or down?
Peter Garnry,
Head of Equity Strategy
With every development comes new opportunites, some of which could be in India. Have you considered the country as a part of your diversification strategy?
Charu Chanana,
Market Strategist
A collar is an option strategy that allows some protection while maintaining some upside potential. What investment would you like to use a collar strategy for?
Hans Oudshoorn,
Trainer Academy
There are arguments to be made for many commodities to have upside. Which are you paying the most attention to this quarter?
Ole S. Hansen,
Head of Commodity Strategy
In a very challenging macro environment, which currencies do you think will come out on top?
John J. Hardy,
Head of FX Strategy