Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew July 14 2021

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  Taper or not to taper


Good Morning

The US CPI surprised to the upside, the headline was +0.9% monthly and 5.4% yearly, half a percent higher than expected. This makes the Fed outlook even more interesting and puts additional focus on Jerome Powell`s testimony in Congress today at 18:00 CET and tomorrow at 15:30 CET. Please find John Hardy`s assessment here.

On the release, the USD index rose 0.4% and the 10 year yields above the 1.4%. Equities held up quite well and also Gold and Silver remained fairly strong. The Dax is 90 points off the highs at 15742, the US 500 retreats 30 points. EURUSD found support at 1.1770 and is currently at 1.1789, Cable at 1.3839. Oil fell on demand concerns - China's first-half crude imports dropped

Democrats agreed on a $3.5 trillion infrastructure investment plan that they aim to include in the budget.

Lumber Futures fell +10% yesterday and gave up all of this years gains.

Today we are expecting little key economic releases but high level earnings as wall as the Powell testimony.

Key reports today are: Wells Fargo, Bank of America, Delta Air Lines, BlackRock, Citigroup Inc s well as PNC Financial Services Group. Yesterday, both JPM as well Goldman s fell on strong earnings on low interest rates.

Expiries
Physically Settled Futures:

CN1 will expire on Today at 9:00 GMT.

WQ1 will expire on 15th July at 9:00 GMT.

CLQ1 will expire on 20th July at 15:00 GMT.

 

Expiring CFDs:

LEANHOGSJUL21 will expire 13th July at 15:00 GMT.

OILUSAUG21 will expire on 16th July at 15:00 GMT

 

Local Start Date

Local Time

Country/Region

Indicator Name

Period

Reuters Poll

14 Jul 2021

04:00

New Zealand

Cash Rate

14 Jul

0.25%

14 Jul 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

CPI YY

Jun

2.2%

14 Jul 2021

09:30

Sweden

CPI MM

Jun

0.1%

14 Jul 2021

09:30

Sweden

CPI YY

Jun

1.3%

14 Jul 2021

13:00

Turkey

CBT Weekly Repo Rate

Jul

19.00%

14 Jul 2021

13:00

Turkey

O/N Lending Rate

Jul

14 Jul 2021

13:00

Turkey

O/N Borrowing Rate

Jul

14 Jul 2021

13:00

Turkey

Late Liquidity Window Rate

Jul

14 Jul 2021

16:00

Canada

BoC Rate Decision

14 Jul

0.25%

15 Jul 2021

03:00

South Korea

Bank of Korea Base Rate

Jul

15 Jul 2021

03:30

Australia

Employment

Jun

30.0k

15 Jul 2021

03:30

Australia

Unemployment Rate

Jun

5.0%

15 Jul 2021

04:00

China (Mainland)

Urban Investment (YTD)YY

Jun

12.1%

15 Jul 2021

04:00

China (Mainland)

Industrial Output YY

Jun

7.8%

15 Jul 2021

04:00

China (Mainland)

Retail Sales YY

Jun

11.0%

15 Jul 2021

04:00

China (Mainland)

GDP YY

Q2

8.1%

15 Jul 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

Claimant Count Unem Chng

Jun

15 Jul 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

ILO Unemployment Rate

May

4.7%

15 Jul 2021

10:00

Italy

CPI (EU Norm) Final MM

Jun

0.2%

15 Jul 2021

10:00

Italy

CPI (EU Norm) Final YY

Jun

1.3%

15 Jul 2021

12:00

Euro Zone

Reserve Assets Total

Jun

15 Jul 2021

14:30

United States

Initial Jobless Clm

10 Jul, w/e

360k

15 Jul 2021

14:30

United States

Philly Fed Business Indx

Jul

28.3

15 Jul 2021

15:15

United States

Industrial Production MM

Jun

0.7%

16 Jul 2021

00:45

New Zealand

CPI QQ

Q2

16 Jul 2021

11:00

Euro Zone

HICP Final MM

Jun

0.3%

16 Jul 2021

11:00

Euro Zone

HICP Final YY

Jun

1.9%

16 Jul 2021

14:15

Canada

House Starts, Annualized

Jun

270.0k

16 Jul 2021

14:30

United States

Retail Sales MM

Jun

16 Jul 2021

16:00

United States

U Mich Sentiment Prelim

Jul

86.5

16 Jul 2021

Japan

JP BOJ Rate Decision

16 Jul

-0.10%

(Refinitiv)


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