Outrageous Predictions
Executive Summary: Outrageous Predictions 2026
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Morning Brew July 12 2021
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Back in the Game - Risk aversion forgotten
Good Morning and congratulations to Italy as the European Champion in Football.
Risk Off Sentiment prevailed for a day before markets recovered. The main reasons cited were bargain hunting in shares and the fact that the ECB announced to be changing their policy guidance.
Indexes made up the Thursday losses on Friday an held most of those gains over the weekend, the US30 trades at 34815, the US 500 at 4361, the USNAS at 14813 and the Ger 30 at 15660. EURUSD 1.1870 and GBPUSD 1.3887. Gold and Silver are at 1805 and 26.00. Equities had one of their best day in months.
China cut the cash reserves for banks, releasing around 1 trillion yuan ($154.19 billion) in long-term liquidity. Guangdong province plans to build a common data platform that would include Hong Kong and Macau, including a data trading market.
The G20 Finance Minister Meeting concluded with little surprises, the way for the 15% minimum Tax is a bit clearer and they issued a warning that a lack of vaccines in developing countries and new variants are a risk to the global economy.
This week we are expecting the start of the earning season in earnest with DND, Pepsi, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and First republic Bank tomorrow. On Wednesday Bank of America,, PNC, Citi and Blackrock as well as Delta will follow.
In terms of economic events, the list is short but prominent, the U.S. CPI and China's second-quarter GDP should be the most important. Central Bank comments could be significant at all times.
Local Start Date | Local Time | Country/Region | Indicator Name | Period | Reuters Poll |
12 Jul 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | Corp Goods Price MM | Jun | 0.6% |
12 Jul 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | Corp Goods Price YY | Jun | 4.7% |
12 Jul 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | Machinery Orders MM | May | 2.6% |
12 Jul 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | Machinery Orders YY | May | 6.3% |
12 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | Denmark | CPI YY | Jun | |
13 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | Germany | HICP Final YY | Jun | 2.1% |
13 Jul 2021 | 08:45 | France | CPI (EU Norm) Final MM | Jun | 0.2% |
13 Jul 2021 | 08:45 | France | CPI (EU Norm) Final YY | Jun | 1.9% |
13 Jul 2021 | 14:30 | United States | CPI MM, SA | Jun | 0.5% |
13 Jul 2021 | China (Mainland) | Exports YY | Jun | 23.1% | |
13 Jul 2021 | China (Mainland) | Imports YY | Jun | 30.0% | |
13 Jul 2021 | China (Mainland) | Trade Balance USD | Jun | 44.20B | |
14 Jul 2021 | 04:00 | New Zealand | Cash Rate | 14 Jul | 0.25% |
14 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | CPI YY | Jun | 2.2% |
14 Jul 2021 | 09:30 | Sweden | CPI MM | Jun | 0.1% |
14 Jul 2021 | 09:30 | Sweden | CPI YY | Jun | 1.3% |
14 Jul 2021 | 13:00 | Turkey | CBT Weekly Repo Rate | Jul | 19.00% |
14 Jul 2021 | 13:00 | Turkey | O/N Lending Rate | Jul | |
14 Jul 2021 | 13:00 | Turkey | O/N Borrowing Rate | Jul | |
14 Jul 2021 | 13:00 | Turkey | Late Liquidity Window Rate | Jul | |
14 Jul 2021 | 16:00 | Canada | BoC Rate Decision | 14 Jul | 0.25% |
15 Jul 2021 | 03:00 | South Korea | Bank of Korea Base Rate | Jul | |
15 Jul 2021 | 03:30 | Australia | Employment | Jun | 30.0k |
15 Jul 2021 | 03:30 | Australia | Unemployment Rate | Jun | 5.0% |
15 Jul 2021 | 04:00 | China (Mainland) | Urban Investment (YTD)YY | Jun | 12.1% |
15 Jul 2021 | 04:00 | China (Mainland) | Industrial Output YY | Jun | 7.8% |
15 Jul 2021 | 04:00 | China (Mainland) | Retail Sales YY | Jun | 11.0% |
15 Jul 2021 | 04:00 | China (Mainland) | GDP YY | Q2 | 8.1% |
15 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | Claimant Count Unem Chng | Jun | |
15 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | ILO Unemployment Rate | May | 4.7% |
15 Jul 2021 | 10:00 | Italy | CPI (EU Norm) Final MM | Jun | 0.2% |
15 Jul 2021 | 10:00 | Italy | CPI (EU Norm) Final YY | Jun | 1.3% |
15 Jul 2021 | 12:00 | Euro Zone | Reserve Assets Total | Jun | |
15 Jul 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Initial Jobless Clm | 10 Jul, w/e | 360k |
15 Jul 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Philly Fed Business Indx | Jul | 28.3 |
15 Jul 2021 | 15:15 | United States | Industrial Production MM | Jun | 0.7% |
16 Jul 2021 | 00:45 | New Zealand | CPI QQ | Q2 | |
16 Jul 2021 | 11:00 | Euro Zone | HICP Final MM | Jun | 0.3% |
16 Jul 2021 | 11:00 | Euro Zone | HICP Final YY | Jun | 1.9% |
16 Jul 2021 | 14:15 | Canada | House Starts, Annualized | Jun | 270.0k |
16 Jul 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Retail Sales MM | Jun | |
16 Jul 2021 | 16:00 | United States | U Mich Sentiment Prelim | Jul | 86.5 |
16 Jul 2021 | Japan | JP BOJ Rate Decision | 16 Jul | -0.10% |
(Refinitiv)
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