Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew July 1 2024

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  Welcome to the second half of 2024


Good morning,

The French election saw the far right and the far left ahead and make for an interesting next round on the 7th of July. The Euro and European Indexes seem to be happy with the result even if the reasoning is not fully obvious. Euro gained app 0.5% against the US Dollar and the Swiss Franc, the Eurostoxx 50 is trading 1.4% higher in the Future and the GER40 app 1%.  The France 40 is not yet open for trading.

The Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) was released in line with expectations at 2.6% for both "normal" and "core." The Chicago PMI and the University of Michigan reports came in stronger than expected. We saw the second-highest volumes of the year in the US, mainly driven by position adjustments for the half-year end and index changes.

The Dow lost 0.1%, the S&P 0.4%, and the Nasdaq 0.7% for the day. For the first six months of the year, the Russell 2000 gained 0.56%, the Dow Jones 3.9%, the S&P Equal Weight 4%, the S&P 500 15%, and the Nasdaq 19%. The DAX is up 8.9% this year, and the Euro Stoxx 50 is up 8.2%.

As for the stock of the day, Nike fell nearly 20% on Friday due to a gloomy outlook. For the first half of the year, the standout performers are the big tech stocks: Nvidia +149%, Microsoft +18.8%, Alphabet +30.4%, Apple +9.4%, Meta +42.5%, and Super Micro Computer +188.2%.

Gold closed at 2326, slightly down, while silver managed a gain of 0.6% after trading as high as 29.60. Bitcoin lost 2% on Friday but is up 43% this year, and Ethereum is up 1.7% and 48%, respectively. Over the weekend, Bitcoin gained 5% and seems to be breaking out of the descending channel in charts, we remain in the larger broad 60-70k range we have been trading since March

US 10-Year Yields closed the week at 4.34%, starting the year below 3.9%. The USD Index was 105.85 vs 101.20.

FX was calm on Friday, with the majors moving around 0.1%. USD/JPY held near 161.

This week, we kick off the second half of the year, and it will be an interesting one:

  • Europe will need to digest the French Election and the Inflation Data on Tuesday.
  • The US will have Powell speaking on Tuesday, the 4th of July holiday, and the Nonfarm Payroll on a very illiquid day. Will there be fallout from the presidential debate?
  • The UK Election is scheduled for the 4th of July.

Upcoming Events:

Monday Japan Tankan, DE Inflation, International PMI, US ISM, Canada Holiday

Tuesday EU Inflation, Unemployment, Powell speaks

Wednesday DE Industrial Orders, US Initial Jobless Claims, Fed Minutes, John Williams Speaks

ThursdayUS Holiday, UK Election, DE Industrial Orders

Friday DE Industrial Production, UK House Prices, Swiss FX Reserves, US Nonfarm & Unemployment, Canada Labor Market Data

 

Quarterly Outlook

  • Upending the global order at blinding speed

    Quarterly Outlook

    Upending the global order at blinding speed

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    We are witnessing a once-in-a-lifetime shredding of the global order. As the new order takes shape, ...
  • Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Quarterly Outlook

    Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

  • Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Quarterly Outlook

    China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

Content disclaimer

None of the information provided on this website constitutes an offer, solicitation, or endorsement to buy or sell any financial instrument, nor is it financial, investment, or trading advice. Saxo Bank A/S and its entities within the Saxo Bank Group provide execution-only services, with all trades and investments based on self-directed decisions. Analysis, research, and educational content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered advice nor a recommendation.

Saxo’s content may reflect the personal views of the author, which are subject to change without notice. Mentions of specific financial products are for illustrative purposes only and may serve to clarify financial literacy topics. Content classified as investment research is marketing material and does not meet legal requirements for independent research.

Before making any investment decisions, you should assess your own financial situation, needs, and objectives, and consider seeking independent professional advice. Saxo does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information provided and assumes no liability for any errors, omissions, losses, or damages resulting from the use of this information.

Please refer to our full disclaimer and notification on non-independent investment research for more details.

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15
2900 Hellerup
Denmark

Contact Saxo

Select region

International
International

All trading and investing comes with risk, including but not limited to the potential to lose your entire invested amount.

Information on our international website (as selected from the globe drop-down) can be accessed worldwide and relates to Saxo Bank A/S as the parent company of the Saxo Bank Group. Any mention of the Saxo Bank Group refers to the overall organisation, including subsidiaries and branches under Saxo Bank A/S. Client agreements are made with the relevant Saxo entity based on your country of residence and are governed by the applicable laws of that entity's jurisdiction.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.