Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew July 1 2024

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  Welcome to the second half of 2024

Good morning,

The French election saw the far right and the far left ahead and make for an interesting next round on the 7th of July. The Euro and European Indexes seem to be happy with the result even if the reasoning is not fully obvious. Euro gained app 0.5% against the US Dollar and the Swiss Franc, the Eurostoxx 50 is trading 1.4% higher in the Future and the GER40 app 1%.  The France 40 is not yet open for trading.

The Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) was released in line with expectations at 2.6% for both "normal" and "core." The Chicago PMI and the University of Michigan reports came in stronger than expected. We saw the second-highest volumes of the year in the US, mainly driven by position adjustments for the half-year end and index changes.

The Dow lost 0.1%, the S&P 0.4%, and the Nasdaq 0.7% for the day. For the first six months of the year, the Russell 2000 gained 0.56%, the Dow Jones 3.9%, the S&P Equal Weight 4%, the S&P 500 15%, and the Nasdaq 19%. The DAX is up 8.9% this year, and the Euro Stoxx 50 is up 8.2%.

As for the stock of the day, Nike fell nearly 20% on Friday due to a gloomy outlook. For the first half of the year, the standout performers are the big tech stocks: Nvidia +149%, Microsoft +18.8%, Alphabet +30.4%, Apple +9.4%, Meta +42.5%, and Super Micro Computer +188.2%.

Gold closed at 2326, slightly down, while silver managed a gain of 0.6% after trading as high as 29.60. Bitcoin lost 2% on Friday but is up 43% this year, and Ethereum is up 1.7% and 48%, respectively. Over the weekend, Bitcoin gained 5% and seems to be breaking out of the descending channel in charts, we remain in the larger broad 60-70k range we have been trading since March

US 10-Year Yields closed the week at 4.34%, starting the year below 3.9%. The USD Index was 105.85 vs 101.20.

FX was calm on Friday, with the majors moving around 0.1%. USD/JPY held near 161.

This week, we kick off the second half of the year, and it will be an interesting one:

  • Europe will need to digest the French Election and the Inflation Data on Tuesday.
  • The US will have Powell speaking on Tuesday, the 4th of July holiday, and the Nonfarm Payroll on a very illiquid day. Will there be fallout from the presidential debate?
  • The UK Election is scheduled for the 4th of July.

Upcoming Events:

Monday Japan Tankan, DE Inflation, International PMI, US ISM, Canada Holiday

Tuesday EU Inflation, Unemployment, Powell speaks

Wednesday DE Industrial Orders, US Initial Jobless Claims, Fed Minutes, John Williams Speaks

ThursdayUS Holiday, UK Election, DE Industrial Orders

Friday DE Industrial Production, UK House Prices, Swiss FX Reserves, US Nonfarm & Unemployment, Canada Labor Market Data


Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3

Sandcastle economics

01 / 05

  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.

    Read article
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain inflation and evolving monetary policies.

    Read article
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynamics echo 2021's rally.

    Read article
  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperform in Q3 2024.

    Read article
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities in Q3 2024.

    Read article


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (
Full disclaimer (
Full disclaimer (

Saxo Bank (Schweiz) AG
The Circle 38

Contact Saxo

Select region


All trading carries risk. Losses can exceed deposits on margin products. You should consider whether you understand how our products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a general Risk Warning series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. The KIDs can be accessed within the trading platform. Please note that the full prospectus can be obtained free of charge from Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or the issuer.

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and thus governed by Swiss Law. 

The content of this website represents marketing material and has not been notified or submitted to any supervisory authority.

If you contact Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or visit this website, you acknowledge and agree that any data that you transmit to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., either through this website, by telephone or by any other means of communication (e.g. e-mail), may be collected or recorded and transferred to other Saxo Bank Group companies or third parties in Switzerland or abroad and may be stored or otherwise processed by them or Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. You release Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. from its obligations under Swiss banking and securities dealer secrecies and, to the extent permitted by law, data protection laws as well as other laws and obligations to protect privacy. Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. has implemented appropriate technical and organizational measures to protect data from unauthorized processing and disclosure and applies appropriate safeguards to guarantee adequate protection of such data.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc.