Morning Brew January 9 2025

Good morning,

With the US Stock market closed today, we will have to see what will drive markets.

It like the UK may well be in focus. The 10 Year yield of the Gilt is at the highest since the Global financial crisis in 2008, the pound is sold anyway ant at a years low below the 1.23. This is not a good sign as normally higher yields should make the Pound more attractive.

This pulls the USD Index to above 109 even as the EURUSD remains at 1.03 and USDJPY 158.

Gold and Silver are stable at 2666 and 30.15, Bitcoin is at 93500.

In the US Markets were in a holding pattern after Trumps press conference and inconclusive Red Minutes. The most interesting part of the Fed minutes was worry, Tariffs and deportation of illegal immigrants can boost inflation.

Donald Trump visited the Capitol and met with Senate republicans apparently without a clear path set for his agenda, there were rumors that he may use emergency legislations to push through his plans.

10 Year Yields breached the 4.70 but then receded to 4.66, US Equities were relatively calm with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 slightly higher while the Nasdaq lost a little more than half a percent. Volumes are low at app 16 billion shares.

Chinese inflation was roughly in line, the PPI fell a little less than feared at -2.3% vs the 2.4% expected, Just now we saw surprisingly good data out of Germany with the industrial production at +1.5 vs 0.5 expected, exports +2.1 vs +2 expected and Imports lower at -3.3% vs 0.7% expected.

With US Closed for the Jimmy Carter Memorial, it will either be a calm or erratic day, tomorrow the key event will be the first nonfarm Payroll of 2025.

Trade Safely.

 Thursday:

• Data: US Market Holiday for Jimmy Carters Memorial Service EU Retail Sales, China CPI PPI, DE Industrial Production,
• Barkin, Schmid, and Bowman speak, Space with Elon Musk and Alice Weidel

Friday:

• Data: Switzerland Unemployment Rate, Norway & Denmark CPI, US Nonfarm Payroll, University of Michigan Sentiment Preliminary