Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew January 9 2024

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  Is your Currency Risk hedged?


Good Morning

  • Stocks mostly up
  • Boeing down
  • Oil Lower as Saudi Arabia cuts production
  • Bitcoin strong
  • Is your portfolio hedged against currency Risk?

Equities had a great day yesterday in a bit of an odd move… Especially Tech rose with Nvidia the star. New chips presented at the CES caused stock to rise to a new all time high and close 6.3% higher at 522.

Apple rose 2.4% on news the Vision Pro will be on sale from February 2nd, Boeing fell 8%  on the issues with the 737 Max. Indexes gained: The Doe +0.6%, The US500 +1.4% and the Nasdaq +2.2%. 

Traders seem to be celebrating a weak CPI Print on Thursday and there seems to be a great deal of fear of missing out as a driver, I have a hard time to justify the strong sentiment but the market is always right.

Yields and FX were fairly quiet, the 10 Year Yield is trading at 4.02 an the USD Index 102.30, EURUSDD 1.0950 GBPUSD 1.2733 and Gold and Silver 2032 and 23.05, Bitcoin gained to 47k on hopes of near launch of the broad ETF. It formed the first ever Golden Cross where the 50 Week SMA crossed the 200 day from below.

We convinced our Options-Guru Koen to also take a look at FX Options, on a simple approach to hedge a portfolio against adverse currency moves. Why is that important? If you had a portfolio of US Stocks equal to the S%P500, you gained app  16%- in the same time you would have lost 8.% due to the rise of the Swiss Franc.

As I am writing, our Q1 Outlook is hitting the wires, ppls enjoy it: https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/thought-leadership/quarterly-outlook

 

Central banks will embark on rate cuts in 2024, marking a shift from the tightening stance in the previous year. Opportunities will arise in precious metals, equity themes such as defence and value stocks, higher duration sovereign bonds, and a weaker USD. Geopolitical tensions and populism in politics loom as significant risk factors, necessitating close monitoring.

Tuesday
- Data Japan CPI, Australia Retail Sales, US  International Trade $

Wednesday
- Data Australia CPI,

Thursday
- Data US CPI, Initial Jobless Claims,

Friday
- Data China CPI, PPI, UK GDP,

Expiries

Physically Settled Futures

FPF4 will expire 10 Jan 2024 at 16:00 GMT

Expiring CFDs

GASOILUKJAN24 will expire 09 Jan 2024 at 16:00 GMT

 

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