Morning Brew January 31 2022

Good Morning

We are going into an interesting week with key central bank decisions, lots of economic data and the first nonfarm Payroll of the year. The FOMC meeting last week has markets nervous and looking for clues on the course going forward.

After opening weak, US Index closed strong on Friday: Dow up 1.65%, S&P+ 2.43%, Nasdaq +3.13%, the biggest news  were Apple, +7%  Visa +10.6% , Western Digital and Caterpillar fall 7.3% and 5.2% on disappointing outlooks Chevron Corp missed Wall Street estimates and offered a weak outlook for this year's oil and gas production, shares fall 3.5%.

Main drivers were bargain hunting and weaker than feared  US data, as well as a statement by Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari that a rate hike pause after a likely hike in March was possible. That indicted to many that the Fed would remain flexible in it`s approach. The overall expectation remains at close to 5 hikes this year.

10 Year Yields remain at 1.8% after a high of 1.85 on Friday, the US Index falls to 97.11 from 97.40 on Friday. Gold and Silver fell on Friday but especially Gold could hold above the 1782 support, currently 1788 and Silver trades at 22.40.

EURUSD remains near last weeks lows at 1.1165 while GBPUSD at 1.3420. EURGBP is trading at 0.8315 and at a strong support from since 2016, Thursday will be a big day with both central bank meetings.

Oil remains strong supply worries and high geopolitical tensions

As the Turkish Central bank continues to manage the exchange rate against the USD, Turkish President Erdogan dismissed the head of the statistics office on a reported disagreement over inflation.

Reuters reports that Russia is setting up a roadmap on Crypto regulation as Bitcoin remainsarround 37000.

We have launched a basked of Companies with strong female leadership set up by Peter Garnry:

Why women leadership?

Today we are launching our next equity theme basket focusing on women leadership. Why would do we need a women leadership basket? We are currently running an investor theme focus on ESG and the percentage of woman in companies’ executive team is part of the social aspect of companies. Recent research (here and here) also shows that there are mostly positive impact on company performance from having a more gender diversified executive team. This research from S&P Global also show that publicly listed companies with more women in the leadership team performs better.

Ecomnomic Data:

Monday: Germany GDP Turkey Trade Balance, Italy GDP, EU GDP, Germany CPI, US CPI,

Tuedsday: UK Houseprices, Germany Retail Sales Switzerland Retail Sales, France PMI, Germany PMI and Unemployment, EZ PMI, Canada GDP, US PMI, ISM Manufacturing PMI

Wednesday: EZ HICP, ADP Employment

Thursday: International PMIs, EU PPI , UK rate decision, EU Rate decision, US Employment data and factory orders

Friday: Germany Industrial Orders, EU retail sales, US Nonfarm Payroll

Earnings:

Tuesday: Keyence Corp,  United Parcel Service, Exxon Mobil Corp US PayPal Advanced Micro, Starbucks Gilead Chubb

Wednesday :Alibaba Novo Nordisk Alphabet Sony Mitsubishi T-Mobile Meta QUALCOMM AbbVie Thermo Fisher Novartis AG

Thursday: Roche Ford Amazon.com Eli Lilly Shell  ConocoPhillips , Estee Lauder Cos Inc

Friday:: Bristol-Myers Squibb,  Sano FP