Morning Brew January 21 2022
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Risk Off drives Yields Lower, Netflix and Peleton sell off
There are a number of margin changes today, you can see if you are affected by checking if you have a blue “I” in your account bar or in your account statement. If you see click on it, you will see the change. There should not be any dramatic impacts that we could see.
US Equities continues their descent yesterday with the Dow down 0.89%, the S&P sheds 1.1% and the Nasdaq 1.3%. Netflix dropped sharply from a close of 508 to 405 after a poor outlook. Peleton falls 24% on news of falling demand and production halts. Big tech down again, Apple -1%, Alphabet -1.3Meta -1% and Nvidia -3.6, Tesla is stable at 995. Yields fall sharply on a shift into bonds and the US 10 year is trading at 1.78 after testing the 2 just two days ago. The EU 10 year falls below 0 again.
Bitcoin down 6% on technical selling and Russia considering a ban. We are just trading at the 38k support line where the price turned in March 2021.
Oil falls 1.8%after data shows a build in US inventories -
The USD Index gives up ground on the falling yield, not following the risk off sentiment . There are no huge moves: EURUSD 1.1330 GBPUSD 1.3590 Gold 1840 and Silver 24.40 EURCHF 1.0365
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov are scheduled to meet in Geneva today,
Rio Tinto fell almost 5% after Serbia withdrew a lithium exploration license, stating ecological concerns. There is open suspicion that Australia’s failure to let Novak Djokovic play in the Australian Open was the actual cause.
Schlumberger reports earnings today and Canadian Retail sales at 14:30as well as the EU Consumer confidence at 16:00 are of Interest. In the night from Sunday to Monday, the Australian and Japanese PMI will be released.
Physically Settled Futures:
ECOG2 will expire 23th January 2022 at 10:00 GMT.
NGG2G2 will expire 27th January 2022 at 10:00 GMT.
GCG2, MGCG2 will expire 28th January 2022 at 16:00 GMT.
NATGASUSFEB22 will expire 25th January 2022 at 16:00 GMT.
INDIA50JAN22 & TAIWAN95JAN22 will expire 27th January 2022 at 02:00 GMT.
GASOLINEUSFEB22, GOLDFEB22 & HEATINGOILFEB22 will expire 27th January 2022 at 16:00 GMT.
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022: The End Game has arrived
- Shocks from covid and the war in Ukraine have forced the global financial and political world to change, but what will the end game be?
Productivity and innovation have never been more importantAs the world economy hits physical limits and central banks tighten their belts, could equities be facing a 10-15% downside?
The great EUR recovery and the difficulty of trading itIf the terrible fog of war hopefully lifts soon, the conditions are promising for the euro to reprice significantly higher.
Tight commodity markets – turbocharged by war and sanctionsWith supply already tight, commodities keep powering on. But will it last for yet another quarter?
Between a rock and a hard placeGeopolitical concerns will add upward price pressures and fears of slower growth, while volatility will remain elevated.
The Great ErosionInflation is everywhere and central banks try to combat it. But will they get it under control in time?
Australian investing: Six considerations amid triple Rs: rising rates, record inflation and likely recessionWhile global financial markets are struggling in an uncertain world, the commodity-heavy Australian ASX index is poised to keep a positive momentum.
Cybersecurity – the rush to catch up with realityWith the invasion of Ukraine, governments and private companies are rushing to reinforce their cyber defenses.