Morning Brew January 21 2022
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Risk Off drives Yields Lower, Netflix and Peleton sell off
There are a number of margin changes today, you can see if you are affected by checking if you have a blue “I” in your account bar or in your account statement. If you see click on it, you will see the change. There should not be any dramatic impacts that we could see.
US Equities continues their descent yesterday with the Dow down 0.89%, the S&P sheds 1.1% and the Nasdaq 1.3%. Netflix dropped sharply from a close of 508 to 405 after a poor outlook. Peleton falls 24% on news of falling demand and production halts. Big tech down again, Apple -1%, Alphabet -1.3Meta -1% and Nvidia -3.6, Tesla is stable at 995. Yields fall sharply on a shift into bonds and the US 10 year is trading at 1.78 after testing the 2 just two days ago. The EU 10 year falls below 0 again.
Bitcoin down 6% on technical selling and Russia considering a ban. We are just trading at the 38k support line where the price turned in March 2021.
Oil falls 1.8%after data shows a build in US inventories -
The USD Index gives up ground on the falling yield, not following the risk off sentiment . There are no huge moves: EURUSD 1.1330 GBPUSD 1.3590 Gold 1840 and Silver 24.40 EURCHF 1.0365
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov are scheduled to meet in Geneva today,
Rio Tinto fell almost 5% after Serbia withdrew a lithium exploration license, stating ecological concerns. There is open suspicion that Australia’s failure to let Novak Djokovic play in the Australian Open was the actual cause.
Schlumberger reports earnings today and Canadian Retail sales at 14:30as well as the EU Consumer confidence at 16:00 are of Interest. In the night from Sunday to Monday, the Australian and Japanese PMI will be released.
Physically Settled Futures:
ECOG2 will expire 23th January 2022 at 10:00 GMT.
NGG2G2 will expire 27th January 2022 at 10:00 GMT.
GCG2, MGCG2 will expire 28th January 2022 at 16:00 GMT.
NATGASUSFEB22 will expire 25th January 2022 at 16:00 GMT.
INDIA50JAN22 & TAIWAN95JAN22 will expire 27th January 2022 at 02:00 GMT.
GASOLINEUSFEB22, GOLDFEB22 & HEATINGOILFEB22 will expire 27th January 2022 at 16:00 GMT.
Latest Market Insights
Outrageous Predictions 2023: The War Economy
- The constantly growing global need for energy drives the world's richest to huddle up and launch a R&D project in a size the world hasn't seen since the Manhattan Project gave the US the first atomic bomb.
French President Macron resignsThe political stalemate in France and the rise of Marie Le Pen following the 2022 elections corners President Macron, forcing him to give up on politics and resign from his position. At least for now.
Gold rockets to USD 3,000 as central banks fail on inflation mandateAs markets and central banks realise that the idea that inflation is transitory is wrong, and that prices will remain higher for longer, gold is sent through the roof, hitting a price tag of USD 3,000
EU Army forces EU down path to full unionWith continued challenges in the region and a US military that isn't aggressively enacting its former role as global policeman, the European Union agrees to create its own armed forces, bringing the whole region closer.
A country agrees to ban all meat production by 2030In an effort to become one of the global leaders on the path to net-zero emissions, one country decides to not only put a heavy tax on meat, but to ban domestic production entirely.
UK holds UnBrexit referendumFollowing a recession and domestic pressure, the United Kingdom is thrown into political turmoil that will end with a vote to wind back Brexit.
Widespread price controls are introduced to cap official inflationHistory tells us that with the war economy comes rationing and price controls. And this time is no different, as policymakers introduce strict price controls that lead to a range of unintended consequences.
OPEC+ & Chindia walk out of the IMF, agree to trade with new reserve assetSanctions against Russia have caused widespread turmoil due to US Dollar moves in countries across the globe that don't consider the US an ally. To relieve themselves from this, they leave the IMF and create a new reserve asset.
USDJPY fixed to the USD at 200 as Japan overhauls financial systemFollowing the challenges that faced the Japanese Yen in 2022, the Bank of Japan attempts to keep the currency from sliding. Unsuccessful on the long-term, Japan will launch a reset of its entire financial system.
Tax haven ban kills private equityWith the war economy comes an increased focus on national interests and sovereign nations' ability to assert themselves. In that regard, the OECD countries turn their attention on tax havens and pull the big guns out, banning them altogether.