Morning Brew January 18 2022
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Yields and Oil rise
Ax expected, yesterday was not the most volatile of days given the US Holiday.
The Bank of Japan left rates upgraded its inflation forecasts on Tuesday, the JPY tested the 115 and the 200hMA level and failed to break higher so far.
Equities are under pressure this morning as rising oil prices dampen the mood and fuel inflation fears. A drone attack in the UAE and receding worries on Omicron let prices rise. Brent has broken above the double top 2018 and Q4 2021.
US Indexes are trading app. 0.5% lower with the US30 at 35853 the US 500 at 4640 and the US Tech 100 at 15443. The GER30 trades at 15890.
US yields rose to 1.84 and the German 10 Year is approaching 0, currently at -0.022 and a new high since Q2 2019
EURUSD is trading at 1.1400, GBPUSD 1.3640 and the USD Index 95.30
Gold hovers at 1816 and Silver just below the 22.95. So far the old rule that Gold follows oil higher is not the case.
Bitcoin remains stable to 42300 with a study by Genesis Trading showing that the investor base into bitcoin is becoming more stable. The amount of bitcoin held in digital wallets with no outflows for more than five months has been steadily increasing and The number of bitcoins that haven't been traded in 12 months moved in over a year has been rising steadily in the last 6 months.
UBS has reached levels not seen since early 2018, in view of 18 CHF again, while the resignation of Horta-Osorio, the stock fell to 9.3 as the focus was more on the fact that there was a further issue and not on the fact that that there had been a solution.
Airline executives in the US warned of an aviation crisis if 5G is rolled out as currently planned because airlines failed to get their planes ready in time. The US could be looking at more than 1,100 flights daily could be cancelled.
Rio Tinto expects slightly weaker iron ore shipments in 2022
German UK Labor Data at 8:00 the German ZEW at 11:00 ,the Canada CPI 14:30
Key earnings today earnings Goldman Sachs, Interactive Broker and Charles Schwab
Physically Settled Futures:
CLG2 will expire 20th January 2022 at 16:00 GMT.
ECOG2 will expire 23th January 2022 at 10:00 GMT.
NGG2G2 will expire 27th January 2022 at 10:00 GMT.
GCG2, MGCG2 will expire 28th January 2022 at 16:00 GMT.
OILUSFEB22 will expire 18th January 2022 at 16:00 GMT.
NATGASUSFEB22 will expire 25th January 2022 at 16:00 GMT.
INDIA50JAN22 & TAIWAN95JAN22 will expire 27th January 2022 at 02:00 GMT.
GASOLINEUSFEB22, GOLDFEB22 & HEATINGOILFEB22 will expire 27th January 2022 at 16:00 GMT.
CHINA50JAN22, HK50JAN22 & SINGAPOREJAN22 will expire 28th January 2022 at 02:00 GMT.
Futures can be rolled online via the Futures Spread Trade Ticket. Any open positions will be closed after the mentioned times.
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022: The End Game has arrived
- Shocks from covid and the war in Ukraine have forced the global financial and political world to change, but what will the end game be?
Productivity and innovation have never been more importantAs the world economy hits physical limits and central banks tighten their belts, could equities be facing a 10-15% downside?
The great EUR recovery and the difficulty of trading itIf the terrible fog of war hopefully lifts soon, the conditions are promising for the euro to reprice significantly higher.
Tight commodity markets – turbocharged by war and sanctionsWith supply already tight, commodities keep powering on. But will it last for yet another quarter?
Between a rock and a hard placeGeopolitical concerns will add upward price pressures and fears of slower growth, while volatility will remain elevated.
The Great ErosionInflation is everywhere and central banks try to combat it. But will they get it under control in time?
Australian investing: Six considerations amid triple Rs: rising rates, record inflation and likely recessionWhile global financial markets are struggling in an uncertain world, the commodity-heavy Australian ASX index is poised to keep a positive momentum.
Cybersecurity – the rush to catch up with realityWith the invasion of Ukraine, governments and private companies are rushing to reinforce their cyber defenses.