Morning Brew February 24 2022
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Russian Forces enter Ukraine Markets react severely.
All eyes will be on Ukraine today were a Russian military operation is reported. The scope of the escalation is not yet fully clear but reports include missiles and air forces, explosions are reported from several cities.
Markets react with a strong risk off reaction across the board, equities fall in the futures, Dax and Eurostocks 50 down 4% to 14000 and 3830, US Indexes app 2%, , Yields fall, the US 10 Year from 2% to 1.88 and the EU from 0.26 to 0.22.
EURUSD falls to 1.1245, GBPUSD to 1.35, Gold and Silver rise to 1940 and 25,00.
Bitcoin fails as a safe haven and loses 7%.
The day will be driven by impact assessments and initial reactions, be prepared for sharp moves at any point in time.
Physically Settled Futures:
CGBH2, FLGH2 will expire 24th February at 16:00 GMT.
STFH2 will expire 25th February at 02:00 GMT.
EMAH2 will expire 25th February at 10:00 GMT.
HGH2, KEH2, RRH2, SIH2, SILH2, TNH2, UBH2, XCH2, XKH2, XWH2, ZBH2, ZCH2, ZFH2, ZLH2, ZMH2, ZNH2, ZSH2, ZTH2, ZWH2 will expire 25th February at 16:00 GMT.
10YUSTNOTEMAR22, COPPERUSMAR22, CORNMAR22, GASOLINEUSMAR22, HEATINGOILMAR22, SILVERMAR22, SOYBEANMEALMAR22, SOYBEANOILMAR22, SOYBEANSMAR22, SUGARNYMAR22, WHEATMAR22 will expire 24th February at 16:00 GMT.
Key Events this Week:
Thursday: US GDP New Home Sales
Friday: German GDP, EU Consumer Confidence, Durable Goods Orders
Thursday: Safran, Anheuser Bush Inbev, Axa, Deutsche Telekom, Royal Bank oc Canada. Alibaba, Moderna, Newmont Mining
Saturday: Berkershire Hathaway.
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022: The End Game has arrived
- Shocks from covid and the war in Ukraine have forced the global financial and political world to change, but what will the end game be?
Productivity and innovation have never been more importantAs the world economy hits physical limits and central banks tighten their belts, could equities be facing a 10-15% downside?
The great EUR recovery and the difficulty of trading itIf the terrible fog of war hopefully lifts soon, the conditions are promising for the euro to reprice significantly higher.
Tight commodity markets – turbocharged by war and sanctionsWith supply already tight, commodities keep powering on. But will it last for yet another quarter?
Between a rock and a hard placeGeopolitical concerns will add upward price pressures and fears of slower growth, while volatility will remain elevated.
The Great ErosionInflation is everywhere and central banks try to combat it. But will they get it under control in time?
Australian investing: Six considerations amid triple Rs: rising rates, record inflation and likely recessionWhile global financial markets are struggling in an uncertain world, the commodity-heavy Australian ASX index is poised to keep a positive momentum.
Cybersecurity – the rush to catch up with realityWith the invasion of Ukraine, governments and private companies are rushing to reinforce their cyber defenses.