Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Russian Forces enter Ukraine Markets react severely.
Good Morning,
All eyes will be on Ukraine today were a Russian military operation is reported. The scope of the escalation is not yet fully clear but reports include missiles and air forces, explosions are reported from several cities.
Markets react with a strong risk off reaction across the board, equities fall in the futures, Dax and Eurostocks 50 down 4% to 14000 and 3830, US Indexes app 2%, , Yields fall, the US 10 Year from 2% to 1.88 and the EU from 0.26 to 0.22.
EURUSD falls to 1.1245, GBPUSD to 1.35, Gold and Silver rise to 1940 and 25,00.
Bitcoin fails as a safe haven and loses 7%.
The day will be driven by impact assessments and initial reactions, be prepared for sharp moves at any point in time.
Expiries
Physically Settled Futures:
CGBH2, FLGH2 will expire 24th February at 16:00 GMT.
STFH2 will expire 25th February at 02:00 GMT.
EMAH2 will expire 25th February at 10:00 GMT.
HGH2, KEH2, RRH2, SIH2, SILH2, TNH2, UBH2, XCH2, XKH2, XWH2, ZBH2, ZCH2, ZFH2, ZLH2, ZMH2, ZNH2, ZSH2, ZTH2, ZWH2 will expire 25th February at 16:00 GMT.
Expiring CFDs:
10YUSTNOTEMAR22, COPPERUSMAR22, CORNMAR22, GASOLINEUSMAR22, HEATINGOILMAR22, SILVERMAR22, SOYBEANMEALMAR22, SOYBEANOILMAR22, SOYBEANSMAR22, SUGARNYMAR22, WHEATMAR22 will expire 24th February at 16:00 GMT.
Key Events this Week:
Thursday: US GDP New Home Sales
Friday: German GDP, EU Consumer Confidence, Durable Goods Orders
Earnings:
Thursday: Safran, Anheuser Bush Inbev, Axa, Deutsche Telekom, Royal Bank oc Canada. Alibaba, Moderna, Newmont Mining
Friday: BASF
Saturday: Berkershire Hathaway.