Morning Brew February 24 2022
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Russian Forces enter Ukraine Markets react severely.
All eyes will be on Ukraine today were a Russian military operation is reported. The scope of the escalation is not yet fully clear but reports include missiles and air forces, explosions are reported from several cities.
Markets react with a strong risk off reaction across the board, equities fall in the futures, Dax and Eurostocks 50 down 4% to 14000 and 3830, US Indexes app 2%, , Yields fall, the US 10 Year from 2% to 1.88 and the EU from 0.26 to 0.22.
EURUSD falls to 1.1245, GBPUSD to 1.35, Gold and Silver rise to 1940 and 25,00.
Bitcoin fails as a safe haven and loses 7%.
The day will be driven by impact assessments and initial reactions, be prepared for sharp moves at any point in time.
Physically Settled Futures:
CGBH2, FLGH2 will expire 24th February at 16:00 GMT.
STFH2 will expire 25th February at 02:00 GMT.
EMAH2 will expire 25th February at 10:00 GMT.
HGH2, KEH2, RRH2, SIH2, SILH2, TNH2, UBH2, XCH2, XKH2, XWH2, ZBH2, ZCH2, ZFH2, ZLH2, ZMH2, ZNH2, ZSH2, ZTH2, ZWH2 will expire 25th February at 16:00 GMT.
10YUSTNOTEMAR22, COPPERUSMAR22, CORNMAR22, GASOLINEUSMAR22, HEATINGOILMAR22, SILVERMAR22, SOYBEANMEALMAR22, SOYBEANOILMAR22, SOYBEANSMAR22, SUGARNYMAR22, WHEATMAR22 will expire 24th February at 16:00 GMT.
Key Events this Week:
Thursday: US GDP New Home Sales
Friday: German GDP, EU Consumer Confidence, Durable Goods Orders
Thursday: Safran, Anheuser Bush Inbev, Axa, Deutsche Telekom, Royal Bank oc Canada. Alibaba, Moderna, Newmont Mining
Saturday: Berkershire Hathaway.
Latest Market Insights
Q4 Outlook 2022: Winter is coming
- Winter is coming to the financial markets as central banks are tightening their grip. How spring will look is still a question.
European energy crisis: it will get worse before it gets betterThe winter in Europe will be tough, but whether the result is political chaos or sustainable, innovative solutions is still undecided.
A difficult and volatile quarter awaitsAs the year draws to an end, commodities continue to be at centre stage of the world with growth pockets political uncertainty.
The bright side: crises drive innovationThe positive spin on crises is that they come with solutions. It is worrisome that deglobalisation may be a response to this crisis.
Green transformation in China: renewable energy and beyondGoing green, China needs to span numerous energy sources to ensure stability, as every source comes with a challenge.
Asia: Intermittent solutions, but a faster renewable adoption curveAsian energy supply is being squeezed. This and the adoption of renewables may change the investment sentiment in the region.
FX: A Fed thaw needed to deliver a sustained USD turn lowerThe US Dollar can keep momentum when the Federal Reserve continues to tighten, leaving the rest to play to their drum.
Autumn can become ugly for equities and bond holders. Comfort for Dollar longsTechnical analysis suggests that equities could face a tough Q4 as could fixed income. US Dollar positions could provide some upside.
The next stock market sector to watch, with stocks going nuclearAs the world scrambles to find affordable, sustainable energy, nuclear is getting attention from politicians and investors alike.
The crypto space is getting cold when the hype disappearsCryptocurrencies face a winter of their own as retail investors and governments are asking tough questions.