Morning Brew February 2 2022
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Traders are looking for a hawkish ECB, Google strong on results.
Quite a mixed session on US exchanges yesterday, that ended in the green for the indexes, Dow 0.78%, S&P 0.69%, Nasdaq 0.75%. Exon rose 6.5% on strong results and stock of the day was Google, closing up almost 2% and adding another 6% after the results and market close. For Swiss, UBS was rather amazing with an 8% rise
Sony surprises with a 30% rise in operating profit this morning. The GER40 is near the key resistance at 15725.
Fed Speakers Patrick Harker and Raphael Bostic were on the wires yesterday, saying 4 hikes could be appropriate and that the fed needed to act soon. Harker said he was not convinced a 50 point hike in March was necessary.
The Expectation for a hawkish ECB is in the rise, yields are rising to their highest since 2019 and interest futures imply a 9 basis point hike by July. British Yields also rise. Both central banks will announce their policy rates tomorrow. It will be an interesting day.
EURUSD rises to 1.1270 and GBPUSD 1.3520, the USD Index trades at 96.29. Gold and Silver tested higher yesterday but Gold failed to breach the 1810 and fell back to 1797 and Silver trades 10 cents higher than yesterday after hitting a high of 23.10 yesterday.
Russian President Vladimir Putin accused the West of trying to push Russia into a war..
China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia continue to be closed for the Chinese New Year celebration.
Our Ole Hansen published a great article on commodity returns, that is key for a all looking to start trading the sector:
Commodities continued to build on strong gains in 2021, a year where the sector recorded its best year since 2000. In our recently published Quarterly Outlook we see the prospect of even higher prices in 2022 with another year of tight supply and inflationary pressures supporting commodity returns. The decarbonization of the world will increasingly create so-called greenflation where rising demand and prices of commodities needed to support the process will be met by inelastic supply, partly driven by regulations, such as ESG, prohibiting some investors and banks from supporting mining and drilling activities.
Wednesday: EZ HICP, ADP Employment
Thursday: International PMIs, EU PPI , UK rate decision, EU Rate decision, US Employment data and factory orders
Friday: Germany Industrial Orders, EU retail sales, US Nonfarm Payroll
Wednesday :Alibaba Novo Nordisk Alphabet Sony Mitsubishi T-Mobile Meta QUALCOMM AbbVie Thermo Fisher Novartis AG
Thursday: Roche Ford Amazon.com Eli Lilly Shell ConocoPhillips , Estee Lauder Cos Inc
Friday:: Bristol-Myers Squibb, Sano FP
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022: The End Game has arrived
- Shocks from covid and the war in Ukraine have forced the global financial and political world to change, but what will the end game be?
Productivity and innovation have never been more importantAs the world economy hits physical limits and central banks tighten their belts, could equities be facing a 10-15% downside?
The great EUR recovery and the difficulty of trading itIf the terrible fog of war hopefully lifts soon, the conditions are promising for the euro to reprice significantly higher.
Tight commodity markets – turbocharged by war and sanctionsWith supply already tight, commodities keep powering on. But will it last for yet another quarter?
Between a rock and a hard placeGeopolitical concerns will add upward price pressures and fears of slower growth, while volatility will remain elevated.
The Great ErosionInflation is everywhere and central banks try to combat it. But will they get it under control in time?
Australian investing: Six considerations amid triple Rs: rising rates, record inflation and likely recessionWhile global financial markets are struggling in an uncertain world, the commodity-heavy Australian ASX index is poised to keep a positive momentum.
Cybersecurity – the rush to catch up with realityWith the invasion of Ukraine, governments and private companies are rushing to reinforce their cyber defenses.