Morning Brew February 1 2022
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: EU Yields rise ahead of ECB, Stocks strong in Month end
Due to a strong close yesterday, the Nasdaq narrowly misses having the worst January ever. A rise of 3.4% yesterday makes it beat January 2008 (9.89% vs 8.99%) Nasdaq and S&P gain as well with 1.17% and 1.89% respectively. On the month the S&P loses 5.26% and ane the Dow Jones 3.3%. , Tesla gained more than 10% on a rating upgrade by Credit Suisse.
Interest Rate Futures show an implied Fed rate of 1.30 so 5 rate hikes above the current level. Bank of America even thinks 7 hikes possible..
While US yields remain fairly stable, EU Yields gain in the forefront of the ECB meeting, German 10 years trade at 0.013 and Althea points out in her great bond update:
it is just a matter of time before we see 10-year Bund yields trading consistently above 0%, and this week’s ECB monetary policy meeting might help with that
The USD Index falls to 96.60, EURUSD Rises to 1.1240 and GBPUSD to 1.3440. Gold and Silver rise slightly to 1802 and 22.50 Bitcoin can breach the 38k again.
The Australian Bank ends QE but offers no outlook on hikes, the AUD swings but ends where we started the day at 70.60.
UBS announced better than expected earnings.
Boris Johnson will vow to uphold Ukraine's sovereignty on a visit to Kiev on Tuesday while calls for his resignation are raises at home due to corona rule violations
China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia continue to be closed for the Chinese New Year celebration.
Tuedsday: UK Houseprices, Germany Retail Sales Switzerland Retail Sales, France PMI, Germany PMI and Unemployment, EZ PMI, Canada GDP, US PMI, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Wednesday: EZ HICP, ADP Employment
Thursday: International PMIs, EU PPI , UK rate decision, EU Rate decision, US Employment data and factory orders
Friday: Germany Industrial Orders, EU retail sales, US Nonfarm Payroll
Tuesday: Keyence Corp, United Parcel Service, Exxon Mobil Corp US PayPal Advanced Micro, Starbucks
Wednesday :Alibaba Novo Nordisk Alphabet Sony Mitsubishi T-Mobile Meta QUALCOMM AbbVie Thermo Fisher Novartis AG
Thursday: Roche Ford Amazon.com Eli Lilly Shell ConocoPhillips , Estee Lauder Cos Inc
Friday:: Bristol-Myers Squibb, Sano FP
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022: The End Game has arrived
- Shocks from covid and the war in Ukraine have forced the global financial and political world to change, but what will the end game be?
Productivity and innovation have never been more importantAs the world economy hits physical limits and central banks tighten their belts, could equities be facing a 10-15% downside?
The great EUR recovery and the difficulty of trading itIf the terrible fog of war hopefully lifts soon, the conditions are promising for the euro to reprice significantly higher.
Tight commodity markets – turbocharged by war and sanctionsWith supply already tight, commodities keep powering on. But will it last for yet another quarter?
Between a rock and a hard placeGeopolitical concerns will add upward price pressures and fears of slower growth, while volatility will remain elevated.
The Great ErosionInflation is everywhere and central banks try to combat it. But will they get it under control in time?
Australian investing: Six considerations amid triple Rs: rising rates, record inflation and likely recessionWhile global financial markets are struggling in an uncertain world, the commodity-heavy Australian ASX index is poised to keep a positive momentum.
Cybersecurity – the rush to catch up with realityWith the invasion of Ukraine, governments and private companies are rushing to reinforce their cyber defenses.