Outrageous Predictions
Executive Summary: Outrageous Predictions 2026
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Morning Brew February 1 2022
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: EU Yields rise ahead of ECB, Stocks strong in Month end
Good Morning
Due to a strong close yesterday, the Nasdaq narrowly misses having the worst January ever. A rise of 3.4% yesterday makes it beat January 2008 (9.89% vs 8.99%) Nasdaq and S&P gain as well with 1.17% and 1.89% respectively. On the month the S&P loses 5.26% and ane the Dow Jones 3.3%. , Tesla gained more than 10% on a rating upgrade by Credit Suisse.
Interest Rate Futures show an implied Fed rate of 1.30 so 5 rate hikes above the current level. Bank of America even thinks 7 hikes possible..
While US yields remain fairly stable, EU Yields gain in the forefront of the ECB meeting, German 10 years trade at 0.013 and Althea points out in her great bond update:
it is just a matter of time before we see 10-year Bund yields trading consistently above 0%, and this week’s ECB monetary policy meeting might help with that
The USD Index falls to 96.60, EURUSD Rises to 1.1240 and GBPUSD to 1.3440. Gold and Silver rise slightly to 1802 and 22.50 Bitcoin can breach the 38k again.
The Australian Bank ends QE but offers no outlook on hikes, the AUD swings but ends where we started the day at 70.60.
UBS announced better than expected earnings.
Boris Johnson will vow to uphold Ukraine's sovereignty on a visit to Kiev on Tuesday while calls for his resignation are raises at home due to corona rule violations
China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia continue to be closed for the Chinese New Year celebration.
Ecomnomic Data:
Tuedsday: UK Houseprices, Germany Retail Sales Switzerland Retail Sales, France PMI, Germany PMI and Unemployment, EZ PMI, Canada GDP, US PMI, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Wednesday: EZ HICP, ADP Employment
Thursday: International PMIs, EU PPI , UK rate decision, EU Rate decision, US Employment data and factory orders
Friday: Germany Industrial Orders, EU retail sales, US Nonfarm Payroll
Earnings:
Tuesday: Keyence Corp, United Parcel Service, Exxon Mobil Corp US PayPal Advanced Micro, Starbucks
Gilead Chubb
Wednesday :Alibaba Novo Nordisk Alphabet Sony Mitsubishi T-Mobile Meta QUALCOMM AbbVie Thermo Fisher Novartis AG
Thursday: Roche Ford Amazon.com Eli Lilly Shell ConocoPhillips , Estee Lauder Cos Inc
Friday:: Bristol-Myers Squibb, Sano FP
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