Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew February 1 2022

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  EU Yields rise ahead of ECB, Stocks strong in Month end

Good Morning

Due to a strong close yesterday, the Nasdaq narrowly misses having the worst January ever. A rise of 3.4% yesterday makes it beat January 2008 (9.89% vs 8.99%) Nasdaq and S&P gain as well with 1.17% and 1.89% respectively. On the month the S&P loses 5.26% and ane the Dow Jones 3.3%. , Tesla gained more than 10% on a rating upgrade by Credit Suisse.

Interest Rate Futures show an implied Fed rate of 1.30 so 5 rate hikes above the current level. Bank of America even thinks 7 hikes possible..

While US yields remain fairly stable, EU Yields gain in the forefront of the ECB meeting, German 10 years trade at 0.013 and Althea points out in her great bond update:

it is just a matter of time before we see 10-year Bund yields trading consistently above 0%, and this week’s ECB monetary policy meeting might help with that

The USD Index falls to 96.60, EURUSD Rises to 1.1240 and GBPUSD to 1.3440. Gold and Silver rise slightly to 1802 and 22.50 Bitcoin can breach the 38k again.

The Australian Bank ends QE but offers no outlook on hikes, the AUD swings but ends where we started the day at 70.60.

UBS announced better than expected earnings.

Boris Johnson will vow to uphold Ukraine's sovereignty on a visit to Kiev on Tuesday while calls for his resignation are raises at home due to corona rule violations

China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia continue to be closed for the Chinese New Year celebration.


Ecomnomic Data:

Tuedsday: UK Houseprices, Germany Retail Sales Switzerland Retail Sales, France PMI, Germany PMI and Unemployment, EZ PMI, Canada GDP, US PMI, ISM Manufacturing PMI

Wednesday: EZ HICP, ADP Employment

Thursday: International PMIs, EU PPI , UK rate decision, EU Rate decision, US Employment data and factory orders

Friday: Germany Industrial Orders, EU retail sales, US Nonfarm Payroll


Tuesday: Keyence Corp, United Parcel Service, Exxon Mobil Corp US PayPal Advanced Micro, Starbucks

Gilead Chubb

Wednesday :Alibaba Novo Nordisk Alphabet Sony Mitsubishi T-Mobile Meta QUALCOMM AbbVie Thermo Fisher Novartis AG

Thursday: Roche Ford Eli Lilly Shell ConocoPhillips , Estee Lauder Cos Inc

Friday:: Bristol-Myers Squibb, Sano FP


Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3

Sandcastle economics

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  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain inflation and evolving monetary policies.

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  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynamics echo 2021's rally.

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  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperform in Q3 2024.

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  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities in Q3 2024.

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