Head of Macroeconomic Research
Summary: Our central scenario remains the extension of Article 50, that should be requested by October 19th, and new Parliamentary elections that could take place five weeks after the initial Brexit deadline.
Our favorite macro gauge UK credit impulse, which explains economic activity nine to twelve months forward with an “R2” of .60, is going through its eighth quarter of contraction, the longest period since the early 1990s. It is currently running at minus 3.9% of GDP versus a low point this cycle at minus 7.2% reached in early 2018. The length of the contraction is similar to that of the period 1990-1992 when the United Kingdom entered into recession due to high interest rates, an overvalued exchange rate and falling house prices.
The current situation is profoundly different since it is Brexit uncertainty that is driving the economic downturn. The uncertainty goes hand in hand with low interest rates, a GBPUSD exchange rate undervalued by 23% and lower house prices in real terms.
The outcome of the ongoing negotiations between the United Kingdom and the European Union is unlikely to change the future of the British economy. The prolonged contraction in the flow of new credit in the economy and the five straight quarters of contraction in business investment are the two key factors usually leading to a recession.
However, there is no guarantee that the UK economy will fall in recession this year as a jump in stockpiling ahead of October 31st could artificially spur economy activity, as was the case in Q1 2019.
Strategic view :
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
