CFDs and forex (FX) are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs, FX, or any of our other products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Cookie policy
Our websites use cookies to offer you a better browsing experience by enabling, optimising, and analysing site operations, as well as to provide personalised ad content and allow you to connect to social media. By choosing “Accept all” you consent to the use of cookies and the related processing of personal data. Select “Manage consent” to manage your consent preferences. You can change your preferences or retract your consent at any time via the cookie policy page. Please view our cookie policy and our privacy policy.
CFDs and forex (FX) are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider.
CFDs and forex (FX) are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs, FX, or any of our other products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Summary: The global economy is headed into contraction, and the spotlight is on China's response.
It is a great honour to have Dr. Charles Su of CIB Research as guest columnist for this latest edition of Steen's Chronicle. Dr. Su will be a keynote speaker at Saxo's upcoming Gateway to China series of events to be held in Copenhagen on March 13, in London on March 20, and in Hong Kong on March 27.
Click here to sign up for this exclusive opportunity to learn how to unlock opportunities within the world’s second-largest economy.
Since 2018, the global economy has moved towards a downturn while the supply chain realignment – of which the China/US trade talks are a major component – accelerates. For investors looking to forecast the coming changes, the Federal Reserve's apparent pausing of its quantitative tightening plans and the changes seen in the Chinese credit cycle are key factors.
In Dr. Su's attached presentation, he also notes that the World Trade Organization is facing 'judgment day' at the 2019 Japan G20 summit as the fractures within the present multilateral system of global trade make themselves more apparent.
Source: CIB Research
In terms of the China/US trade negotiations, a deal in which China purchases more US goods will not be without its costs; the question is, who among the country's present trade partners will feel the most pain?
Source: CIB Research
China's shift from deleveraging to counter-cyclical moves is a key component of our outlook for 2019 and 2020. With China and the Fed loosening policy, Dr. Su sees recession as unlikely over this timespan while also noting the possibility of outperformance among emerging market assets.
For a full copy of Dr. Su's presentation on China going counter-cyclical, please click here.
None of the information provided on this website constitutes an offer, solicitation, or endorsement to buy or sell any financial instrument, nor is it financial, investment, or trading advice. Saxo Bank A/S and its entities within the Saxo Bank Group provide execution-only services, with all trades and investments based on self-directed decisions. Analysis, research, and educational content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered advice nor a recommendation.
Saxo’s content may reflect the personal views of the author, which are subject to change without notice. Mentions of specific financial products are for illustrative purposes only and may serve to clarify financial literacy topics. Content classified as investment research is marketing material and does not meet legal requirements for independent research.
Before making any investment decisions, you should assess your own financial situation, needs, and objectives, and consider seeking independent professional advice. Saxo does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information provided and assumes no liability for any errors, omissions, losses, or damages resulting from the use of this information.