Quick note: Brexit....
Chief Investment Officer
Summary: EU and UK reach agreement on Brexit but PM Johnson still needs to find a way through Parliament with the DUP saying NO
- What: Brexit deal – or the skeleton of a deal – is done
- Next: EU Council Minister meeting this afternoon. Saturday votes in UK Parliament and in EU council and European Parliament (EP has veto in this case)
- Outcomes: Most likely it will pass in Europe – UK is 50/50 as of now.
- Market reaction: A Yes, will benefit Europe (DAX) more than FTSE as the UK still have to deal with extremely negative credit impulse – we maintain underweight UK currency exposure, but with no live position for now.
- Conclusion: This does not solve anything – it buys time, and in best case it offer some short-term clarity. If deal fails in Parliament we face General Referendum and another dead-line end of January, i.e: The never ending story..
Recommended Twitter accounts to follow:
- Laura Kuenssberg (BBC) @bbclaurak
- Katya Adler (BBC) @BBCkatyaadler
- Lisa O'Carroll (Guardian) @lisaocarroll
- Mehreen (FT) @MehreenKhn
- Sky News @SkyNewsBreak
- Leo Varadkar (Irish PM) @LeoVaradkar
The deal done is effectively one where everything is delayed by four years vis-à-vis Northern Ireland, NI:
Short-version of below: NI will under both EU and UK law next four years, then they will have vote decide what to do. In spirit this is violation of Good Friday agreement, but one the Tory party is willing to do in order to “normalize” situation.
For now: Labor and Lib. DEM calls this deal – “worse, than the May deal….”
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022: The End Game has arrived
- Shocks from covid and the war in Ukraine have forced the global financial and political world to change, but what will the end game be?
Productivity and innovation have never been more importantAs the world economy hits physical limits and central banks tighten their belts, could equities be facing a 10-15% downside?
The great EUR recovery and the difficulty of trading itIf the terrible fog of war hopefully lifts soon, the conditions are promising for the euro to reprice significantly higher.
Tight commodity markets – turbocharged by war and sanctionsWith supply already tight, commodities keep powering on. But will it last for yet another quarter?
Between a rock and a hard placeGeopolitical concerns will add upward price pressures and fears of slower growth, while volatility will remain elevated.
The Great ErosionInflation is everywhere and central banks try to combat it. But will they get it under control in time?
Australian investing: Six considerations amid triple Rs: rising rates, record inflation and likely recessionWhile global financial markets are struggling in an uncertain world, the commodity-heavy Australian ASX index is poised to keep a positive momentum.
Cybersecurity – the rush to catch up with realityWith the invasion of Ukraine, governments and private companies are rushing to reinforce their cyber defenses.