Quick note: Brexit....

Quick note: Brexit....

Macro
Steen Jakobsen

Chief Investment Officer

Summary:  EU and UK reach agreement on Brexit but PM Johnson still needs to find a way through Parliament with the DUP saying NO


  • What: Brexit deal – or the skeleton of a deal – is done
  • Next: EU Council Minister meeting this afternoon. Saturday votes in UK Parliament and in EU council and European Parliament (EP has veto in this case)
  • Outcomes: Most likely it will pass in Europe – UK is 50/50 as of now.
  • Market reaction: A Yes, will benefit Europe (DAX) more than FTSE as the UK still have to deal with extremely negative credit impulse – we maintain underweight UK currency exposure, but with no live position for now.
  • Conclusion: This does not solve anything – it buys time, and in best case it offer some short-term clarity. If deal fails in Parliament we face General Referendum and another dead-line end of January, i.e: The never ending story..

Recommended Twitter accounts to follow:

  • Laura Kuenssberg (BBC) @bbclaurak
  • Katya Adler (BBC) @BBCkatyaadler
  • Lisa O'Carroll (Guardian) @lisaocarroll
  • Mehreen (FT) @MehreenKhn
  • Sky News @SkyNewsBreak
  • Leo Varadkar (Irish PM) @LeoVaradkar

Links: FT Live and Guardian Live

The deal done is effectively one where everything is delayed by four years vis-à-vis Northern Ireland, NI:

Short-version of below: NI will under both EU and UK law next four years, then they will have vote decide what to do. In spirit this is violation of Good Friday agreement, but one the Tory party is willing to do in order to “normalize” situation.

For now: Labor and Lib. DEM calls this deal – “worse, than the May deal….”

EURGBP briefly dropped to a five-months low at €0.8575 before reversing higher to trade up on the day. 
Source: Saxo Bank

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto...
  • FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ...
  • Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c...
  • Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperfo...
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynami...
  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore the "two-lane economy," European equities, energy commodities, and the impact of US fiscal p...
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Quarterly Outlook

    Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain ...
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities i...


Business Hills Park – Building 4,
4th Floor, office 401, Dubai Hills Estate, P.O. Box 33641, Dubai, UAE

Contact Saxo

Select region

UAE
UAE

Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

Saxo Bank A/S is licensed by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority and operates in the UAE under a representative office license issued by the Central bank of the UAE.

The content and material made available on this website and the linked sites are provided by Saxo Bank A/S. It is the sole responsibility of the recipient to ascertain the terms of and comply with any local laws or regulation to which they are subject.

The UAE Representative Office of Saxo Bank A/S markets the Saxo Bank A/S trading platform and the products offered by Saxo Bank A/S.