Macro Dragon WK # 30: Asia kicks off the new week solidly in the red, given last wk's EQ risk off, stronger USD, higher bond prices & volatility, as well as divergences in the commodity complex Macro Dragon WK # 30: Asia kicks off the new week solidly in the red, given last wk's EQ risk off, stronger USD, higher bond prices & volatility, as well as divergences in the commodity complex Macro Dragon WK # 30: Asia kicks off the new week solidly in the red, given last wk's EQ risk off, stronger USD, higher bond prices & volatility, as well as divergences in the commodity complex

Macro Dragon WK # 30: Asia kicks off the new week solidly in the red, given last wk's EQ risk off, stronger USD, higher bond prices & volatility, as well as divergences in the commodity complex

Macro 8 minutes to read
Kay Van-Petersen

Global Macro Strategist

Summary:  Macro Dragon = Cross-Asset Quasi-Daily Views that could cover anything from tactical positioning, to long-term thematic investments, key events & inflection points in the markets, all with the objective of consistent wealth creation overtime.

(These are solely the views & opinions of KVP, & do not constitute any trade or investment recommendations. By the time you synthesize this, things may have changed.)

Macro Dragon WK #30: Asia kicks off the wk in the red, as last wk's poor equity price action continues... 

Top of Mind…

  • TGIM & welcome to WK #30
  • WK #29 was a tough one for equities, oil, value & growth bulls. How much of this is a function of the noise from summer in the Northern Hemisphere, as well as concerns around slowing growth (China) & Delta variant surging (Asia, EM, Europe, US) or just overall correction is always impossible to say.
  • There was nowhere to hide in either value (BP 292.25 -6.0%, XLE energy etf $48.68 -7.9%, JETS airlines etf $22.42 -6.5%) or growth (ABNB $134.31 -10.2%, COIN $225.01 -11.4%, ARKK etf $116.53 -7.2% ) were down significantly.

    33  XLE Energy
  • The WSB complex was also very much on the backfoot, with the likes of AMC $34.96 clocking -24% for the wk on the best volume in 3wks (6x the 12m avg. volume).  We are now c. -44% from its ATH of $62.55, the name is still up +1,549% YTD.
  • There were few equity exceptions finishing the wk in the green – notable to see three of the FANGS, Microsoft, Google & Apple finish up anything from +0.90% to +1.75%. The China Tech HK listed names also did well last wk (+3% to +7%), even though most of those gains to perhaps all are at risk of being reversed this Mon.
  • Its easier to see what went up last wk: Volatility VIX +14% to 18.45, Bond prices rose (bunds are breaking out higher), the USD rose DXY 92.687 +0.60%.
  • There was some divergence in the commodity complex with some of the softs such as Wheat, Corn & Soybean oil having a monster wk from +6% to +12%.
  • Yet still the space was dogged by -24% pullback in lumber $536.40, Palladium $2,637 -6.2% & energy: WTI $71.81 -3.7%, Brent $73.59 -2.6%.
  • So there is a time for everyone in the market. Currently the equity bears, bond + USD + Vol bulls are in limelight. And we are likely going to be in a chopsolidation until the other side of Labor Day in September when the Northern Hemisphere is fully back in from their summer.
  • The majority of the charts & price levels, suggest more the same of what we saw last wk with some critical lvls being broken to the upside – German bund prices 175.29 – & to the downside – AUDUSD at sub 0.7400.
  • There are some interesting trends that are worth monitoring for either mean-reversion potential, complete breakdown or for trying to buy the dip.
  • Bunds have had 3 straight weekly gains of big prices; +77bp, +47bp, +56bp. So a +1.8% move in German 10yr bonds futures. For context on yields, we’ve fone from -0.155% to -0.353%. This raises the stakes for the response to the update from the ECB this Thu on their monetary policy.
  • XLE energy etf is now down for 3 straight wk for a total -12% retracement. On top of that, news over the wkd seems to suggest the OPEX+ Alliance is back on track as UAE is brought back into the fold & we should be back to pre-Covid output in 2023. Looks like the agreement will see +400K barrels added a day from Aug, with a reset on the starting lvls for some of the group. So far energy is down c. -1.5% with WTI $70.82 & Brent $72.53.
  • JETS etf $22.42 is now down 7wks in a row, clocking -6.5% last wk for a total retracement of -16% over the 7wks. For context, this etf was trading +$10 higher pre-covid in Feb 2020. We are -22% from post-Covid highs of $28.71.

    30  JETS

  • If an ETF is down -12% to -22% from recent post-Covid highs, it likely means there are some single stock names that are down more & worth looking at… either as relative value plays or buying the dip if one likes the theme.
  • The wk ahead is likely going to be a confluence of bearish sentiment being weighed against continued earnings season in the US, with a few of the tech names out to bat this.
  • Central Banks: The ECB is likely to command attention this wk, given the anticipated update on its monetary policy framework. RBA mins will be out on Tues.
  • Russia is expected to hike by another 75bp to 6.25%. Whilst rate decisions out of Indonesia 3.50% e/p & South Africa 3.50% e/p are expected to be on hold – the first is struggling with the surge in the Delta variant, after never really being in a position to tackle previous strains. And the latter – perhaps failed state in all but name – has seen the trial of Zuma open pandora’s box of anger, frustration & violence that is the culmination of decades of graft & of course the adversity, stress & devastation that Covid has wrecked on the poor in SA.
  • Econ data is fairly light outside of flash PMIs, there are retail sales data due in the UK, AU & CA.
  • Holidays: SG will be out on Tue, with JP out over Thu & Fri.


Recent Works to Keep In Heavy Rotation



Start<>End = Gratitude + Integrity + Vision + Tenacity | Process > Outcome | Sizing > Position.

This is The Way


Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3

Sandcastle economics

01 / 05

  • 350x200 peter

    Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.

    Read article
  • 350x200 althea

    Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain inflation and evolving monetary policies.

    Read article
  • 350x200 peter

    Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynamics echo 2021's rally.

    Read article
  • 350x200 charu (1)

    FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperform in Q3 2024.

    Read article
  • 350x200 ole

    Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities in Q3 2024.

    Read article


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (
Full disclaimer (
Full disclaimer (

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15

Contact Saxo

Select region


Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank A/S and is not specific to any entity of Saxo Bank Group. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank A/S and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank A/S and thus governed by Danish Law.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.