Macro Dragon: #20, EQ & CMD Up, BO & USD Down? Macro Dragon: #20, EQ & CMD Up, BO & USD Down? Macro Dragon: #20, EQ & CMD Up, BO & USD Down?

Macro Dragon: #20, EQ & CMD Up, BO & USD Down?

Macro 2 minutes to read
Kay Van-Petersen

Global Macro Strategist

Summary:  Macro Dragon = Cross-Asset Daily Views that could cover anything from tactical positioning, to long-term thematic investments, key events & inflection points in the markets, all with the objective of consistent wealth creation overtime.

(These are solely the views & opinions of KVP, & do not constitute any trade or investment recommendations. By the time you synthesize this, things may have changed.)

Macro Dragon: Week # 20 - Technicals Suggesting EQ & CMD Up, BO & USD Down...


Top of Mind…

  • Just sharing some quick notes purely from a technicals, price-action + chart basis over the wkd (i.e. zero fundamentals here)
  • EQ: Major Indices looking super bullish, particularly China A-50 Shares, Dax looking like it could be looking to break-out... & of course things like the Nasdaq already had the anti-bodies...
  • Interesting to see from a sector basis the incredible out-performance on the Consumer Discretionary etf in the US… XLY +4.5% vs. their Consumer staples cousin of XLP, +0.875
  • FX: Dollar is looking weaker against majority of crosses... and not just DM but also EM FX... MXN, NOK, RUB... a lot of these look like they have room to run... despite clocking decent strength over the last 1 to 2 wks… CNH in particular looks set for more strength than weakness despite the US vs. CH rhetoric
  • In a nutshell it feels like the risk-on that equities have enjoyed, is now starting to fully feed into the rest of the EM FX space
  • CMD: Gold consolidation continues... meanwhile silver looks like it could be trying to break out higher... and copper finished, close to last wk's high.... Oil still bid... yet worth noting highs were already in from last Tues
  • Worth noting that real interest rate expectations continues to move lower on the chart – signaling a disconnect (at least for now), with gold staying pinned around $1700 rather than catapulting up
  • KVP does not expect gold to stay consolidated here for long… note its not about nominal yields… but real yields & its in the Fed / Treasuries interest to keep real rates negative for multiple years if not another entire decade
  • Volatility? What volatility.... structural move lower... VIX is sub 30... -25% last wk... FX vol predominantly lower again the USD, with some exception on CAD & GBP yet even those not materially bucking the trend
  • BO: overall looking weaker which would imply lower bond prices, higher yields....
  • Economic data – Obviously a lot lighter than last weeks’ PMIs, ISMs, NFP & Unemployment Numbers… probably most key this wk will be inflation data out of the US & China, China monthly growth numbers for Apr & stale GDP flash figures for Germany & the Euro-Zone
  • Overall the sentiment in price action continues to be bullish, i.e. bad/poor economic data points are not really having a lasting effect on equity or bond pathways. So until that changes, keep that in mind…    
  • US: Inflation 0.4%e 1.5%p, Core 1.75%e 2.1%p, PPI, Jobless claims (note we are now +33m in 7wks), Retail Sales, Empire Mfg., Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, JOLTS  
  • CH: Inflation 3.7%e 4.3%p, PPI -2.6%e -1.5%p, M2 Money Supply 10.3%e 10.1%p, New Loans 1300B e 2850B p, Monthly Growth Figures [FAI -9.5%e -16.15p, IP 1.5%e -1.1%p, RS -5.9%e -15.8%p, U/R 5.8%e 5.9%p]
  • EZ: Industrial Production, ECB Economic Bulletin, GER Flash GDP -2.35e 0.0%p, EZ Flash GDP -3.3%e/p, Trade Balance
  • JP: BoJ Summary of Opinions, Leading Indicators, bank Lending, Current Account, M2 Money Stock, Flash Machine Tool Orders, PPI
  • Central banks:
    • Rate decisions out of New Zealand & Mexico.
    • We also have a lot of Fed speakers on the docket including Powell on economic issues.
    • The BoC will release a review on their financial systems & we will also have Poloz speaking – note, that Poloz successor was picked last wk. Its Mark Carney former #2 back during the GFC, Tiff Macklem, who is set to take over as the new BoC governor on 3 Jun 20.


Start-End = Gratitude+Integrity+Vision. Create Luck. Process > Outcome. Sizing > Idea.




The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (
Full disclaimer (
Full disclaimer (

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15

Contact Saxo

Select region


Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank A/S and is not specific to any entity of Saxo Bank Group. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank A/S and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank A/S and thus governed by Danish Law.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.