Macro Dragon: #20, EQ & CMD Up, BO & USD Down?

Macro 2 minutes to read

Kay Van-Petersen

Global Macro Strategist

Summary:  Macro Dragon = Cross-Asset Daily Views that could cover anything from tactical positioning, to long-term thematic investments, key events & inflection points in the markets, all with the objective of consistent wealth creation overtime.


(These are solely the views & opinions of KVP, & do not constitute any trade or investment recommendations. By the time you synthesize this, things may have changed.)

Macro Dragon: Week # 20 - Technicals Suggesting EQ & CMD Up, BO & USD Down...

  

Top of Mind…

  • Just sharing some quick notes purely from a technicals, price-action + chart basis over the wkd (i.e. zero fundamentals here)
  • EQ: Major Indices looking super bullish, particularly China A-50 Shares, Dax looking like it could be looking to break-out... & of course things like the Nasdaq already had the anti-bodies...
  • Interesting to see from a sector basis the incredible out-performance on the Consumer Discretionary etf in the US… XLY +4.5% vs. their Consumer staples cousin of XLP, +0.875
  • FX: Dollar is looking weaker against majority of crosses... and not just DM but also EM FX... MXN, NOK, RUB... a lot of these look like they have room to run... despite clocking decent strength over the last 1 to 2 wks… CNH in particular looks set for more strength than weakness despite the US vs. CH rhetoric
  • In a nutshell it feels like the risk-on that equities have enjoyed, is now starting to fully feed into the rest of the EM FX space
  • CMD: Gold consolidation continues... meanwhile silver looks like it could be trying to break out higher... and copper finished, close to last wk's high.... Oil still bid... yet worth noting highs were already in from last Tues
  • Worth noting that real interest rate expectations continues to move lower on the chart – signaling a disconnect (at least for now), with gold staying pinned around $1700 rather than catapulting up
  • KVP does not expect gold to stay consolidated here for long… note its not about nominal yields… but real yields & its in the Fed / Treasuries interest to keep real rates negative for multiple years if not another entire decade
  • Volatility? What volatility.... structural move lower... VIX is sub 30... -25% last wk... FX vol predominantly lower again the USD, with some exception on CAD & GBP yet even those not materially bucking the trend
  • BO: overall looking weaker which would imply lower bond prices, higher yields....
  • Economic data – Obviously a lot lighter than last weeks’ PMIs, ISMs, NFP & Unemployment Numbers… probably most key this wk will be inflation data out of the US & China, China monthly growth numbers for Apr & stale GDP flash figures for Germany & the Euro-Zone
  • Overall the sentiment in price action continues to be bullish, i.e. bad/poor economic data points are not really having a lasting effect on equity or bond pathways. So until that changes, keep that in mind…    
  • US: Inflation 0.4%e 1.5%p, Core 1.75%e 2.1%p, PPI, Jobless claims (note we are now +33m in 7wks), Retail Sales, Empire Mfg., Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, JOLTS  
  • CH: Inflation 3.7%e 4.3%p, PPI -2.6%e -1.5%p, M2 Money Supply 10.3%e 10.1%p, New Loans 1300B e 2850B p, Monthly Growth Figures [FAI -9.5%e -16.15p, IP 1.5%e -1.1%p, RS -5.9%e -15.8%p, U/R 5.8%e 5.9%p]
  • EZ: Industrial Production, ECB Economic Bulletin, GER Flash GDP -2.35e 0.0%p, EZ Flash GDP -3.3%e/p, Trade Balance
  • JP: BoJ Summary of Opinions, Leading Indicators, bank Lending, Current Account, M2 Money Stock, Flash Machine Tool Orders, PPI
  • Central banks:
    • Rate decisions out of New Zealand & Mexico.
    • We also have a lot of Fed speakers on the docket including Powell on economic issues.
    • The BoC will release a review on their financial systems & we will also have Poloz speaking – note, that Poloz successor was picked last wk. Its Mark Carney former #2 back during the GFC, Tiff Macklem, who is set to take over as the new BoC governor on 3 Jun 20.

-

Start-End = Gratitude+Integrity+Vision. Create Luck. Process > Outcome. Sizing > Idea.


Namaste,

KVP

Disclaimer

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Pty Ltd prepares and distributes information/research produced within the Saxo Bank Group for informational purposes only. In addition to the disclaimer below, if any general advice is provided, such advice does not take into account your individual objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider the appropriateness of trading any financial instrument as trading can result in losses that exceed your initial investment. Please refer to our Analysis Disclaimer, and our Combined Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement. All legal documentation and disclaimers can be found at https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/.

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service. Access and use of Saxo News & Research and any Saxo Bank Group website are subject to (i) the Terms of Use; (ii) the full Disclaimer; and (iii) the Risk Warning in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group.

Saxo News & Research is provided for informational purposes, does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. No Saxo Bank Group entity shall be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information on Saxo News & Research.

To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, such content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Full Disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
- Analysis Disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/analysis-disclaimer/saxo-analysis-disclaimer)
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)

The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit www.home.saxo/en-au/about-us/awards

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Pty Ltd ABN 32 110 128 286 AFSL 280372 (‘Saxo’ or ‘Saxo Capital Markets’) is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms, Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Trading in leveraged products such as CFDs and Margin FX products may result in your losses surpassing your initial deposits. Saxo Capital Markets does not provide ‘personal’ financial product advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc.

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website is not intended for residents of the United States and Japan.
Please click here to view our full disclaimer.