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Market Quick Take – 28 April 2025

Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: Tech rally continues; tariff uncertainty; busy earnings week
• Volatility: VIX drops below 25; cautious rise in VIX futures; big data week ahead
• Digital Assets: Bitcoin steady near $94,000; crypto stocks mixed; bullish momentum holds
• Currencies: USD trades steady with focus on trade developments, BOJ and US jobs report
• Fixed Income: US Treasury yields trade near two-week lows
• Commodities: Crude rebounds, Gold lower as correction risks rise
• Macro events: Dallas Fed April Manufacturing Activity

Macro data and headlines

• Cargo shipments from China to the US have plummeted by as much as 60% since the US raised tariffs to 145% in early April, and this reduction will soon be felt by American consumers. By mid-May, thousands of companies will need to replenish inventories, which could lead to empty shelves, higher prices, and "Covid-like" shortages, as well as significant layoffs in industries such as trucking, logistics, and retail.
• As Trump’s presidency approaches the 100-day day mark his approval ratings on the economy are at the lowest, with only 39% of Americans approving of his economic stewardship, and his tariffs rollout is also deeply unpopular.
• The University of Michigan's US consumer sentiment rose to 52.2 in April 2025 from 50.8 but fell for the fourth month to its lowest since July 2022, amid concerns over trade policy and inflation risks.
• Briton’s confidence in the economy over the next 12 months has fallen to the lowest on record, since 1978, polling firm Ipsos MORI said on Sunday, with 75% expecting the economy to get worse over the next 12 months, up 8 percentage points since March, Ipsos said.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

1430 – Dallas Fed April Manufacturing Activity

Earnings events

• Monday: Schneider Electric, Domino’s Pizza Inc, F5 Networks, …
• Tuesday: Visa, Coca-Cola, AstraZeneca, Booking, Pfizer, Honeywell, Altria, Starbucks, Mondelez, United Parcel Service, PayPal, …
• Wednesday: Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Qualcomm, Caterpillar, TotalEnergies, Airbus Group, KLA Corp, …
• Thursday: Apple, Amazon.com, Eli Lilly, Mastercard, McDonald’s, MicroStrategy, Airbnb, …
• Friday: Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Eaton, …

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• US: US equities closed higher on Friday, led by Big Tech, with the S&P 500 +0.74%, Nasdaq 100 +1.14%, and Dow +0.05%. Optimism around easing US-China tensions fueled the rebound, despite ongoing trade uncertainty. Alphabet rose 1.5% after strong earnings, while Tesla jumped 9.8% on new self-driving regulations. Meanwhile, US futures edged lower this morning ahead of a packed earnings week featuring Apple, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft. Despite strong Q1 results, companies are lowering forecasts, reflecting trade war caution. Watch today’s CB Consumer Confidence and JOLTS Job Openings for fresh market signals.
• Europe: European markets extended their rally Friday, with STOXX 50 +0.8% and STOXX 600 +0.3%, posting a second straight week of gains (+4.4% and +2.5%). Hopes for a US-China trade truce supported sentiment, even as China denied formal talks. This morning, Eurozone futures opened higher, tracking Asia’s positive momentum. DAX futures gained 0.2%, and optimism was bolstered by upbeat German corporate results and President Zelenskiy’s comments on lasting peace. This week, European earnings and critical macro data, including German GDP and CPI, will take center stage.
• UK: The FTSE 100 closed up 0.09% on Friday, extending its winning streak to 10 consecutive days, the longest since 2019. For the week, the index added 1.69%, buoyed by stronger-than-expected retail sales (+0.4% MoM) and fading trade war fears. Gains were led by aerospace and defense sectors, while gold miners underperformed. Today, UK futures show a muted open, with GBP strength against the dollar adding slight headwinds. Retail and corporate earnings will continue to drive sentiment this week.
• Asia: Asian equities started the week cautiously. Japan’s Nikkei rose 0.5%, lifted by Toyota (+5.5%) on news of a potential supplier buyout. China’s markets were subdued, with the Shanghai Composite flat and the Hang Seng down 0.3%, amid ongoing US-China trade uncertainties and mixed industrial profit data. Hong Kong property and consumer stocks dragged lower. Investors remain focused on China’s upcoming manufacturing PMIs and the Bank of Japan’s rate decision this week. Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures fell 0.5% in early Asian trading, indicating a cautious global mood.

Volatility

Volatility continued easing Friday, with the VIX falling 6.16% to 24.84, and short-term VIX1D and VIX9D contracts posting sharper declines (-8.17% and -12.87%, respectively). VIX futures, however, edged up this morning, reflecting caution ahead of key earnings and economic data. Implied volatility across equities remains elevated but is trending lower. The convergence between implied and realized volatility suggests markets are stabilizing after the tariff-induced spike earlier this month. Still, upcoming events like US PCE inflation, ISM data, and Nonfarm Payrolls could rekindle swings.

Digital Assets

Bitcoin edged up 0.65% to $94,380, outperforming traditional markets again. Analysts note its strengthening role as a store of value amid global trade tensions. ETH and XRP also posted modest gains. Crypto-related equities were mixed: Coinbase +2.8%, MicroStrategy +5.2%, while Riot Platforms slightly declined. Bitcoin's decoupling from tech stocks continues, fueled by safe-haven flows. Bullish sentiment persists, with some strategists targeting $108,000–$125,000 on favorable macro trends. However, analysts caution about short-term profit-taking after the recent surge.

Fixed Income

• Treasuries rose on Friday as stocks pared gains after Trump stated that US tariffs on China would remain unless Beijing makes substantial concessions. The 10-year yield trades near a two-week low around 4.25%, while the 2s10s spread flattened to around 48 basis points as front-end yields lagged slightly.
• On Wednesday the US Treasury will announce its quarterly refunding requirements, while the auctioning of debt will primarily be focusing on very short durations.

Commodities

• Gold trades back below USD 3,300 as it continues to consolidate, and questions are being raised about its ability to avoid a deeper correction amid rising risk appetite elsewhere. It is worth noting that ETF investors turned net sellers last week, joining hedge funds in the futures market who, in the week to 22 April, sold gold for a fifth week, reducing their net long to a 13-month low.
• Crude prices trade higher after a volatile week as traders focus on the latest developments on the trade war front and geopolitical developments with US and Iran reporting progress in nuclear talks, as well as China reiterating plans to support its economy. Oil majors reporting earnings this week.

Currencies

• On Friday, the US dollar strengthened against all G10 currencies amid optimism over easing trade tensions, leaving the broad-focused Bloomberg Dollar Index up by 0.1% on the week after hitting a 16-month low earlier in the week, before losing ground again in early Monday trading, with the mentioned trade optimism supporting the KRW and JPY, with CHF, and EUR both receiving a fresh bid as well.
• USDJPY has found resistance ahead of 144, potentially signalling rangebound trading for now with firm support found at 140, with focus on trade developments and Thursday’s BOJ rate decision. Speculators who have been net buyers for weeks, held a record net long in the CME future in the week to 22 April.
• USDCAD held steady at 1.3860 ahead of today’s Canada's election, with Mark Carney’s Liberal Party holding a narrow lead in the polls over Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives.
• EURUSD has settled into a very narrow range with resistance at 1.14. ECB's Robert Holzmann suggested US tariffs may impact euro zone prices, while traders have priced in another 25bp cut in June.

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