Global Macro Strategist
Summary: Morning APAC Global Macro & Cross-Asset Snapshot
Happy Macro Thu! - APAC Global Macro Morning Call
Thu 5 Sep 2019
O/N & Levels:
Pretty big rally spearheaded by Hang Seng’s c. +4% move yest, that was triggered by Carrie Lam withdrawing the extradition bill. How much of this is a short squeeze, near-term rather than a structural bottom time will tell
From our viewpoints from MM – issues here are much deeper than the bill, it goes to the social imbalances that have been laid out over years by HK tycoons & the HK government being very cozy with one another, whilst forgetting a large segment of society. This is a global theme & one that we have flagged multiple times in our quarterly outlooks
This is likely not something that will get solved in the near-term, even if Lam was to resign & step down, amnesty give, etc…
Note, I am not saying we cannot trade higher on local mkts (of course we can), just bear in mind things are not yet solved
US & Nasdaq had decent +1.1% & +1.4% pops to c. 2940 & 7720 lvls. Big pullback in volatility as VIX cratered close to 12% to close around 17.33
Govies a touch wider given the equity risk on, yet still in similar ranges of late: 1.47%, -67bp & -28bp from 10yr bonds in the US, GER & JP. It is worth noting that the 2/10s have steepened back into positive territory at +2.3bp
Oil was one of the clear standout o/n with a +4.2% rise… following a weak start to the wk (had lost c. -3.6% by Tue close), note US inventories will be out today… a day later than usual given the labor day wkd we had
UK – meanwhile Bojo seems to have gotten himself in a pickle, where it looks like a snap election cannot be called (House of Commons did not back his call for early elections) & there could be an extension (heaven help us) to Jan 31, 2020
What miracle this extension will bring, really boggles the mind. What is killing the UK economy & political landscape through a thousand cuts is all the uncertainty
Today:
US: Challenger job cuts, ADP, Final Services PMI 51.0e 50.9p, ISM non-mfg 54.0e 53.7p, Factory Orders 1.0%e 0.6%p, Crude Oil Inventories
EZ: GER factory orders -1.5%e 2.5%
SWI: Quarterly GDP plus SNB’s Jordan speaking (remember swiss central bank has lowest negative rates globally)
Other:
Link to this wk's Macro Monday: Trump is looking to force the Fed's Hand
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
