Global Macro APAC Morning Brief Global Macro APAC Morning Brief Global Macro APAC Morning Brief

Global Macro APAC Morning Brief

Macro 1 minute to read
Kay Van-Petersen

Global Macro Strategist

Summary:  Morning APAC Global Macro & Cross-Asset Snapshot

Happy Macro Thu! - APAC Global Macro Morning Call

Thu 5 Sep 2019

O/N & Levels:

Pretty big rally spearheaded by Hang Seng’s c. +4% move yest, that was triggered by Carrie Lam withdrawing the extradition bill. How much of this is a short squeeze, near-term rather than a structural bottom time will tell

From our viewpoints from MM – issues here are much deeper than the bill, it goes to the social imbalances that have been laid out over years by HK tycoons & the HK government being very cozy with one another, whilst forgetting a large segment of society. This is  a global theme & one that we have flagged multiple times in our quarterly outlooks  

This is likely not something that will get solved in the near-term, even if Lam was to resign & step down, amnesty give, etc…

Note, I am not saying we cannot trade higher on local mkts (of course we can), just bear in mind things are not yet solved

US & Nasdaq had decent +1.1% & +1.4% pops to c. 2940 & 7720 lvls. Big pullback in volatility as VIX cratered close to 12% to close around 17.33

Govies a touch wider given the equity risk on, yet still in similar ranges of late: 1.47%, -67bp & -28bp from 10yr bonds in the US, GER & JP. It is worth noting that the 2/10s have steepened back into positive territory at +2.3bp

Oil was one of the clear standout o/n with a +4.2% rise… following a weak start to the wk (had lost c. -3.6% by Tue close), note US inventories will be out today… a day later than usual given the labor day wkd we had

UK – meanwhile Bojo seems to have gotten himself in a pickle, where it looks like a snap election cannot be called (House of Commons did not back his call for early elections) & there could be an extension (heaven help us) to Jan 31, 2020

What miracle this extension will bring, really boggles the mind. What is killing the UK economy & political landscape through a thousand cuts is all the uncertainty



US: Challenger job cuts, ADP, Final Services PMI 51.0e 50.9p, ISM non-mfg 54.0e 53.7p, Factory Orders 1.0%e 0.6%p, Crude Oil Inventories 

EZ: GER factory orders -1.5%e 2.5%

SWI: Quarterly GDP plus SNB’s Jordan speaking (remember swiss central bank has lowest negative rates globally) 


Link to this wk's Macro Monday: Trump is looking to force the Fed's Hand 

Boulevard Plaza, Tower 1, 30th floor, office 3002
Downtown, P.O. Box 33641 Dubai, UAE

Contact Saxo

Select region


Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

Saxo Bank A/S is licensed by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority and operates in the UAE under a representative office license issued by the Central bank of the UAE.

The content and material made available on this website and the linked sites are provided by Saxo Bank A/S. It is the sole responsibility of the recipient to ascertain the terms of and comply with any local laws or regulation to which they are subject.

The UAE Representative Office of Saxo Bank A/S markets the Saxo Bank A/S trading platform and the products offered by Saxo Bank A/S.