Market Quick Take – 17 December 2025

Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: Mixed US close as growth stocks offset energy, Europe slips on defense and tech, Asia retreats on China data, property worries
• Volatility: VIX mid-teens, skew elevated, inflation and central banks in focus, spx ±72 pts
• Digital assets: btc/eth softer, ibit/etha firmer, majors mixed, crypto equities uneven
• Currencies: US dollar resurgent on comeback after weak US data Tuesday
• Commodities: Silver and platinum extend surge; oil rebounds from 2021 low on Venezuela blockade
• Fixed Income: Japanese government bonds under pressure again. US treasuries stay in range after chopping around on weak US data.
• Macro events: US Treasury to sell USD 13 billion in 20-year Notes

Macro headlines

• November's jobs report showed payroll growth of 64K, beating forecasts, but October's numbers were revised down and reported at -105k, unemployment rose to 4.6%, the highest since 2021, surpassing the expected 4.4%. Unemployment was 7.8 million, with the participation rate steady at 62.5%. The U-6 unemployment rate also increased due to more involuntary part-time employment.
• US retail sales were flat in October from September 2025, missing the forecast of a 0.1% rise. However, core sales, which exclude certain categories and contribute to GDP, jumped 0.8%, rebounding from a 0.1% dip in September and exceeding the 0.4% expectation.
• Japan's trade balance swung to a surplus of JPY 322.2 billion in November 2025, from a JPY 120.8 billion deficit a year ago, beating forecasts of JPY 71.2 billion. Exports rose 6.1%, driven by strong foreign demand, while imports grew 1.3%, reflecting softer domestic demand and lower energy prices.
• New Zealand's central bank will lower some capital requirements while keeping them above international levels. Major banks will reduce tier 1 capital to 12% from 16%, increase tier 2 capital to 3% from 2%, and maintain 6% internal loss absorbing capacity. Smaller banks' capital requirements will decrease to 14% from 16%.
• The S&P Global US Flash Manufacturing PMI dropped to 51.8 in December 2025, a five-month low, down from 52.2 in November and below the expected 52. Production slowed, new orders fell, and input inventories grew slower. However, employment increased the most since August, and supplier delivery times lengthened significantly.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

0700 – UK Nov CPI
0900 – Germany Dec IFO Business Climate
1000 – Eurozone Nov CPI
1200 – US MBA Mortgage Applications
1530 – EIA's Weekly Crude and Fuel Stocks Report
1800 – US to Sell USD 13 billion 20-year Bonds
Fed speakers: Waller (1315), Williams (1405), Bostic (1730)

Earnings events

• Today: Micron, Jabil, General Mills
• Thursday: Accenture, Nike, Cintas, Fedex, Heico, Darden Restaurants
• Friday: Paychex

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• USA: The S&P 500 fell 0.2% and the Dow dropped 0.6% on Tuesday, while the Nasdaq rose 0.2%. Markets lean defensive after November payrolls rose 64,000 but October was revised down to -105,000 and unemployment hit 4.6%, while flat retail sales hint at softer demand. Energy leads the drag as oil dips below $55, with Exxon down 2.6% and Chevron down 2.0%, while Nvidia rises 0.8%, Meta gains 1.5% and Tesla climbs 3.1% to keep the tech side afloat. The next test is the next big inflation read and Fed messaging.
• Europe: The Euro STOXX 50 fell 0.6% and the STOXX Europe 600 lost 0.5% on Tuesday as a “peace premium” hits defense shares and softer growth signals weigh on sentiment. Rheinmetall drops 4.5% and Leonardo falls 3.9%, while BAE Systems loses 1.7% and Thales slips 1.6% as investors rotate away from the war-trade. Tech also weakens, with ASML down 2.4% and SAP off 1.4%, while LVMH rises 1.7% as luxury holds up. Markets now watch whether incoming purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data stabilises or keeps cooling.
• Asia: Hang Seng falls 1.5% on Tuesday to a near four-week low as weaker China activity data and renewed property stress pull risk appetite lower. Property names slide after China Vanke struggles to secure approval to extend a bond payment, reviving worries that the downturn drags on. Xiaomi drops 2.0% and Zijin Gold sinks 5.9% as tech and cyclicals retreat, while SMIC falls 2.2% on the weaker tone. Singapore’s Straits Times Index is little changed around 4,582, helped by firm banks, with DBS and OCBC holding up while investors wait for the next wave of US data and any fresh China policy support signals.

Volatility

• Markets remain broadly steady, but there's a noticeable tension in option pricing ahead of a critical 48-hour macro window. The VIX closed little changed at 16.48, while the SPX dipped 0.24% to 6800.26. Short-term indicators point to low surface volatility (VIX1D at 11.95, -7.29%) but with a skewed stance: today’s 0DTE options show puts trading at implied volatility near 19.7% versus 15.4% for calls — a clear downside premium, suggesting tail hedging into today's UK and eurozone CPI prints and tomorrow’s US CPI, ECB, and BoE trifecta.
• Options-implied move for SPX into Friday’s expiry (19 Dec): ±72 points, or ±1.05%.

Digital Assets

• Crypto remains stuck in a tug-of-war between cautious positioning and structural rotation. Bitcoin is trading near $86.7k (-1.3%), and ether holds just below $2.94k. Major altcoins like solana ($128) and xrp ($1.92) are steady but lack strong follow-through. Despite this calm, ETF flows tell a less benign story. Spot BTC ETFs saw a net outflow of $210.7m yesterday, though IBIT bucked the trend with +$26.7m — suggesting reallocations, not renewed inflows. ETH ETFs were hit harder, with ETHA down -$2.9m and the group losing -$221.3m overall.
• Options flow remains the more insightful lens. ETHA stood out for upside call interest out to mid-2026, paired with sold puts — a structure consistent with bullish thesis and managed risk. Bitcoin ETF options were mixed, pointing to overlays, not momentum chasing. Meanwhile, crypto equities like MSTR and COIN showed heavy ITM put blocks, many likely negotiated hedges rather than speculative shorts. Risk sentiment is restrained but not pessimistic.

Fixed Income

• Us Treasuries were volatile if rangebound Tuesday even after the release of key US data. The 10-year US Treasury benchmark yield fell a few basis points toward 4.14% in the wake of the soft employment and retail sales data for November, but then bobbed back higher to the middle of the range of the last several days, trading near 4.17% in late Asian hours Wednesday.
• Japanese government bonds were under pressure again Wednesday in Tokyo as the 10-year benchmark JGB yield eyed its highest close of the cycle near 1.98% and the top of the range since 1999, the 2006 high just above 2.00%.

Commodities

• Precious and semi-industrial metals surged higher during the Asian session, led by silver roaring to a fresh record above USD 66, up 4% since yesterday’s close and 124% YTD. Platinum followed suit, hitting a 14-year high above USD 1,900 for a 116% YTD gain, while gold rose to trade less than 1% below its October peak. Demand for hard assets, underpinned by a tight supply outlook, has been a defining investment theme in 2025 and is likely to carry into the new year. From a peak above 105 in April, the gold-silver ratio has since collapsed, now trading near 65 and approaching the 2021 low at 62.30.
• Oil rebounded from its lowest level since 2021 after President Donald Trump ordered a blockade of sanctioned tankers to and from Venezuela. However, signs of a swelling global glut continue to weigh on the market. The sanctions-led bounce does little to offset broader weakness as investors brace for a surplus that the IEA expects to be the largest since the pandemic. That said, the combination of low prices, robust demand and high depletion rates is likely in the coming months to sow the seeds for a stronger rebound, as sustained low prices force higher-cost producers to curb output.

Currencies

• The US dollar has recovered from its choppy sell-off Tuesday, after weak US employment- and retail sales data for November prompted a test above 1.1800 in EURUSD that was rejected, leaving EURUSD to close the day largely unchanged near the 1.1750 level before fresh USD buying in Wednesday’s Asian session sent EURUSD lower toward 1.1713 as of early European hours
• The Japanese yen weakened again in Tokyo’s Wednesday session after USDJPY tested key support on Tuesday in the wake of the weak US data, bouncing from below the key 154.40 area and rising clear of 155.30 in early European hours Wednesday as Japanese government bonds came under pressure.

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