background image background image background image

Another very ugly US housing data release

Macro 6 minutes to read
Picture of Christopher Dembik
Christopher Dembik

Head of Macroeconomic Research

Summary:  The evidence of something seriously amiss with the US housing sector – and thereby the US economy itself – just keeps on stacking up. Between them, these indicators could make the Fed hit the pause button.



We got another interesting data print today about the US real estate market. The National Association of Realtors’ Pending Home Sales, which is a leading indicator of housing activity, was very ugly. In October, it fell 2.6% M/M versus 0.5% expected (chart 1). 
pending sales
Earlier this week, we got another number pointing out the weakness of US housing. New home sales dived 8.9% in October, down 12% from year ago. The supply of new homes remains high, but it seems there is no one that wants them or can afford to buy them due to rising mortgage rates and high prices.

Fed chair Powell hinting at “wait and see” mode yesterday was certainly a consequence of the acceleration of the slowdown in the housing market. Since the beginning of the year, housing numbers have been softening very sharply. 

It constitutes another headwind, along with strong USD, turmoil in the equity market and a rising budget deficit, that is expected to push the Fed to pause monetary policy after December hike.

As we have pointed out many times over the past few months, the Fed's monetary policy is certainly already too tight (chart 2), which increases the risk of financial and economic turbulence due to the high level of indebtedness. 
usmci

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/saxoselect-disclaimer/disclaimer)

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15
2900
Hellerup
Denmark

Contact Saxo

Select region

International
International

Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank A/S and is not specific to any entity of Saxo Bank Group. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank A/S and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank A/S and thus governed by Danish Law.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.