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CFDs and forex (FX) are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. 
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CFDs and forex (FX) are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs, FX, or any of our other products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
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Weekly FX Chartbook: Dollar rally looking stretched, bullish signals for NZD

Forex 5 minutes to read
Charu Chanana 400x400
Charu Chanana

Chief Investment Strategist

Summary:  With hawkish vibes since the start of the year from Fed pushback and jobs/inflation data surprises, the gap between market expectations for Fed’s 2024 rate cuts and the December dot plot has nearly closed. Dollar positioning has also turned to a net long, suggesting the bar for further gains may be high. China markets have returned with optimism after the Lunar New Year holiday, but the sustainability of the trend will be one to watch and that can support CNH and AUD, while NZD looks more compelling amid room for RBNZ rate cut delay and a technical buy signal.

19_FX_Weekly
US inflation surprises were the key story last week but USD only gained 0.2% WoW, while miss in Swiss CPI made CHF an underperformer.
19_FX_Momentum
Our FX Scorecard suggests silver and NZD are leading the pack, while dollar momentum is turning bearish.
19_FX_Positioning
Forex COT to the week of Feb 13 saw dollar turning to a net long, with shorts gathering pace for AUD, CAD, JPY and CHF. Further reduction also seen in EUR longs, while fresh longs were added to MXN, NZD and GBP.
19_FX_Views_Ref

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Other recent Macro/FX articles:

19 Feb: Global Market Quick Take - Asia
15 Feb: Swiss Franc’s bearish view gets more legs
14 Feb: Sticky US inflation could make dollar strength more durable
13 Feb: Weekly FX Chartbook: US and UK disinflation story in focus, watch for ECB split widening
9 Feb: Japanese Yen is throwing a warning
8 Feb: FX 101: USD Smile and portfolio impacts from King Dollar
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