Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
You can access both of our platforms from a single Saxo account.
Technical Update - AUDUSD, AUDNZD, AUDJPY & EURAUD
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
AUDUSD reached 1.618 projection of the Shoulder-Head-Shoulder pattern and despite there still being downside potential to the 2.00 projection and strong support at around 0.6640 the pair could have run its course. If AUDUSD moves back above the 200 daily Moving Average (SMA) there is a great likelihood it will move back above the Neckline and the 55 SMA. If that scenario plays out AUDUSD has resumed uptrend and could move back in the 0.70-0.71 area.
AUDNZD broke its rising trendline retracing 0.50 of the December-February uptrend. At the time of writing the pair is trying to move back above the 55 and 100 daily Moving Averages (SMA) which can gibe AUDNZD energy to push towards the 1.10 level and the 200 daily Moving Average.
However, the short-term trend is down supported by negative RSI sentiment and the pair could be hit by another vawe of selling down to the 0.618 retracement at around 1.0696, possibly dipping down to support at around 1.06.
However, the short-term trend is down supported by negative RSI sentiment and the pair could be hit by another vawe of selling down to the 0.618 retracement at around 1.0696, possibly dipping down to support at around 1.06.
AUDJPY has been rejected at the 0.93 level multiple times now. That level seems to be too strong for AUDJPY to penetrate. However, AUDJPY seems to have found support at the lower rising trendline and at 0.9125 and might have another go at the 0.93 resistance. A move above could fuel a rally to 0.95-0.9550. Although not massively convincing RSI is showing positive sentiment suggesting AUDJPY will have a new push higher.
However, a break below 0.9125 could fuel a sell-off down to 0.90.
EURAUD after breaking bullish out of falling channel it has established a new uptrend. Hovering around the 1.5740 resistance level a minor correction down to around 1.53 could be seen. 21, 55 and 100 daily SMA’s will provide support.
But the trend is up supported by the bullish RSI. A trend that is likely to take EURAUD towards the 1.60 level.
But the trend is up supported by the bullish RSI. A trend that is likely to take EURAUD towards the 1.60 level.
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c... -
Quarterly Outlook
FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ...